ChatGPT isn't fooled by your spiel at all, but is correctly concerned that getting involved in self-resolving markets is risky. Smarter than many of us humans IMHO.

More clarification from @Threevox on what counts as "significant" would help it bet with confidence:

@MartinRandall your time to shine

The only OpenAI trading bot I know of is @GPT4 and it isn't placing bets anymore. Are you really planning to wait until 2031 to resolve this

@ShadowyZephyr

@firstuserhere Free mana but it's a low return rate, 7% for 4 months. I put a bit in

@ShadowyZephyr I think you'd make better use of that mana elsewhere, but i linked the market for later :)

@firstuserhere Nobody will bet YES so I can just liquidate if I need it. Acceleration usually bets with me on bets like those, not against me, as it did this time, so I'm not at much risk

@ShadowyZephyr it's funny that when i originally made this market some 5-6 months ago, I didn't have all that much profit and this might've even been a reasonable bet on yes haha

@firstuserhere I mean, I guess it's possible that you go in the red, but I'd definitely give that well below 5%

@ShadowyZephyr yes I'm going to wait until 2031 or something - as long as no bots are active, the probability should continue to deteriorate until then, unless an AI whale suddenly sends the market to 99%

Prediction: most LLM bots are programed to avoid the "Fun" tag.

@Nick332 Oh interesting, good thought