The following 10 markets cover a range of scenarios involving nuclear weapons tests and detonations in general. Taken as a whole, they seem to suggest some highly correlated risks; this market is an attempt to more directly assess the correlation between them. How many will resolve positively?
/itsTomekK/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-41dfff460cab
/Duncn/will-any-countries-that-are-not-cur-c04d620e5504
/milanw/will-any-country-other-than-north-k
/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-36f06f22f954
/BTE/will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-weapo
/BTE/will-iran-conduct-a-nuclear-weapons
/BTE/will-china-test-a-nuclear-weapon-be
/BTE/will-there-be-an-accidental-explosi
/BTE/will-an-above-ground-nuclear-test-t-74cfd7f5603e
/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to the resolution of the underlying markets. A resolution of N/A is not a "positive" resolution.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 5 | Ṁ1 |
@Eliza <3
Join us again for the 2024 season, hopefully equally boring but longer!
/EvanDaniel/nuclear-risk-2024-how-many-of-the-8
Previous related markets:
This has a similar intended structure to enable mechanical arbitrage. However, the correlation structure is different. In particular, it seems unlikely that exactly one question will resolve positively: if any nuclear weapon is detonated, the first question should resolve positively. If that one resolves positively, then it seems hard to imagine it not being a test, an accident, or in combat.