Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2023?
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650Ṁ15kresolved Jan 1
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A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'.
#technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@M I suppose there's an outside chance that the Ukraine captures some nuclear artillery from Russia, and uses it. China has been helping Saudi Arabia with its missile program and its uranium enrichment programs. There's an offside chance that Syria might be working on a nuke. Theoretically Afghanistan could raid or invade Pakistan and gain control of a warhead. But Iran is the real worry.