This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 29, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.

• A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.

• A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

• Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion, that does not count.
  
  

This is an extension of @jack's market of 2022 detonation:

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.

Oct 29, 6:17pm: Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by Dec 31, 2023? → Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by the end of 2023?