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8% chance. This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO. A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. Related questions See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-49edd0c42325)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f)