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predictedNO

How would this type of test affect the resolution, if it were Russian instead of American? It wouldn't count as a nuclear weapon and therefore the test wouldn't count as a nuclear weapons test, right?

predictedNO

Would resolution criteria of https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-af0ba4d66245 suit this market? (Except perhaps excluding non-deliberate detonations.)

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2023? (tests included)

8% chance. This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO. A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon were launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon did not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. Related questions See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis. (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-49edd0c42325)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-e717f6cb823f)

They must be getting ready to come up with some major ideas. It's terrifying geometry dash unblocked

Seems like they're not going to be in a good position for testing, but depending on how current events play out they might use one in combat