Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030? | Manifold

Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?

23

1kṀ1187

2030

19%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

"non-test nuclear weapon" includes any delivery mechanism or actor. Accidental detonations count. Tactical nuclear weapons count.

"detonate" means there is a nuclear explosion.

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