Manifold Market of the Year
Standard
59
Ṁ9204
resolved Jan 6
100%83%
LK99 Superconductor : @QuantumObserver
3%
Whales vs Minnows : @IsaacKing
2%
Time Person of the Year : @Joshua
0.3%
House Speaker : @SimonGrayson
1.9%
Manifest Orgy : @Stralor
0.0%
Delaware judge forces Musk to close Twitter
3%
Rationalussy : @SG market
0.1%
The Market
0.8%
Barbie 90%+ Rotten Tomatoes : @Jackzilla
0.1%
US debt ceiling June 2023 (M$10,000 subsidy) : @SimonGrayson
3%
Will GPT-4 solve easy Sudoku puzzles? : @Mira
0.1%
Manifold markets financial crisis : @MarkIngraham
0.1%
Manifold Market of the Year : @BTE
0.1%
Destiny Mr. Girl Manifesto : @Apencer
2%
FUH 100k steps : @firstuserhere
0.9%Other

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Time to resolve

reposted

Does anyone object to me reopening this market while the poll is open until Friday? Or should I leave it closed?

reposted

Here is the poll to resolve this question. I included all answers that received > 1% forecast. Lets try to get as many votes as possible by Friday!

hello all poll voters. if a currently unresolved market cough sudoku wins market of the year, I will feel very sad. Especially since the market has a 4% chance of resolving no, in which case I will be even more disappointed.

Resolving?

@TheWabiSabi This resolves to a poll that has yet to be made It looks like. Not the actual prediction outcome.

(not a fan of this type of market because its easy to manipulate the voting on a poll by users not involved in the actual market).

@SirCryptomind I asked about that 8 days ago but got no reply here.

@BTE This is still resolving on a Poll, right?

@SirCryptomind I will create the poll

@BTE Thanks!

@SirCryptomind a lot of my money is now on hold so would be nice if it can be resolved quickly ;)

I like the concept of market awards a lot! I think it could be fun do a bunch of these.

Here's one as a test:

And here's a market for suggesting other award categories:

@Joshua Okay and one for "really smart" too since that one definitely can't be LK-99:

Someone add this, I'm out of money.

If anyone does not already know, you can search resolved markets

This is an interesting market to me. I put some odd limit orders up. 👍

@BTE Will you be manually adding "Others" or just doing predictor adding?

@SirCryptomind You can add them!

@SirCryptomind I have added a few but it’s not up to me because I didn’t participate in every market.

@BTE I may miss something, but would appreciate pointers how to read your markets. For example this one. Are you gonna pick one or many winners? Or is this more like a stock market? Are you gonna resolve it based on your assessment OR what community is gonna upvote OR both of these? What are the criteria for "Best"? On the one side I understand the need for brevity, but on the other markets that don't have descriptions like this feel deprived of meaning. Asking because you seem to create a lot of markets. Perhaps you already answered this somewhere else

@pav I will decide this based on a user poll at the end of the year. I prefer to directly answer questions in the comments rather than write a long description. In this case I definitely should have been more clear about the criteria as it’s a bit too abstract to be obvious. Usually if I can’t ask a clear question in the space allowed for the title I don’t ask it. I also like crowdsourcing criteria as the market gains participants because spending a lot of time creating a market that nobody bets on is a bummer. I spend my time on the questions others find most interesting and engaging. Hope I have answered you sufficiently! Please feel free to challenge my process as suboptimal, I promise I won’t be offended!!

@BTE Interesting! Thanks for the thorough explanation.

@BTE so it will be resolved based on a poll that isn't crested yet?

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