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MANIFOLD
Should I quit Manifold?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ47
Jan 1
50%
chance

Please don't un list this. Just let it exist on manifold. Please :)

If the probability is below 50% at the end of the year, I will quit Manifold.

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Uh, so if people think you should quit, you will stay to spite them, but if people want you to stay, you will betray them. Because that is the way it parses.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Well it's irrelevant, he has to leave. The probability went below 50%, so by the terms of his market, he's got to quit.

@ChurlishGambit by a close reading the resolution points are on year end3

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Nope, it says BY the end of the year, not AT the end of the year. So the criterion was met already.

@ChurlishGambit chill bro. @JussiVilleHeiskanen is right. My bad about the wording, I reworded it

@JussiVilleHeiskanen nah. Because I'll probably end up quitting manifold at some point. I just don't see a point to doing it. It was a fine time though.

@Chimpy This is a complete re-working of the market. Not fair to bettors at all.

@ChurlishGambit there is limited necessity to be anal about phrasing, we are all human here, a little tolerance for fallibility goes far, this isn't something that had been in the description for weeks, but more something that one asks clarification on. If the user has a record of deliberate misleading phrasing,it would be a different kettle of fish, of course

@JussiVilleHeiskanen It's a totally different time-frame. Changes the market entirely.

@ChurlishGambit but later so it's fine

@Chimpy It's not "fine," it's a total alteration of the initial terms of the markets. It's a fraudulent market.

@ChurlishGambit bro. chilax

bought Ṁ10 NO

It's now at 48%, meaning you must quit Manifold.