Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends? (6000 Mana subsidy)

316

11K

Ṁ970K

Ṁ8.2K

Dec 31

49%

chance

ALL

@firstuserhere This is absolutely doable and I think you should go for it! If you really want to pull it off you'll definitely need to dedicate a full day for it - I mean just do the math, we're talking like 11 or 12 hours walking minimum. You should definitely do some planning for the day of and at least a bit of training for a month or so in advance. If you were really fit and did frequent long distance running (>10 miles at least once a week), I think you could pretty much just pick a random day and do it. This really isn't in the same class as running a marathon or ultra, since there's much less of a cardio component, and you aren't getting the pounding on your joints that you get from running. That said, it will still be a pretty serious challenge. It sounds like you're at least in okay shape and have walked lots of steps in the past, but not in good enough shape that things will turn out well if you just wing it. I think the most likely reasons you don't pull this off are: you just aren't that serious about it and never commit a day to doing it (in that case why make the market and bet on yourself though?) or decide it isn't worth the effort you commit to it but don't plan well, aren't keeping sufficient pace, and quit part way through you commit, plan it out, and start, but are physically unable to do it - imo most likely issues are foot pain or muscle cramping in your legs that make it too hard to keep going you start and get pretty far but hit a mental wall part way through and talk yourself out of finishing - in particular, there's some risk that once you pass your brother's record, you'll decide that's good enough and not go the rest of the way. I think if you're serious about this, you can get around all of those things. It's hard to say how serious you are about this, but you have done 50k+ steps previously which is no small thing, and you made this market, so I assume you at least intend to give it a shot. Some random bits of advice: You probably should build up some endurance in terms of "time on your feet" for a month or so in advance. Maybe one day where you hit 20k each week for a few weeks, then 30k, and then 50k. If you can do 50k without big issues, I think you should be able to jump to 100k from there. If you try and jump straight to 100k with no buildup, I think there's a good chance it will be too painful or you'll have severe cramping or something I recommend using a treadmill, at least for a lot of it. That way you won't have to think about where you're going, and walking is the 'default', so you'll end up being more time efficient than if you walk outside. Plus no hills. And you can read a book or watch something and mindlessly knock out a few hours of walking You can also figure out in advance how many steps you get at different paces and plan out your attempt a little better. E.g. would you prefer 4mph - about 8k steps/hour - for 3 hours, or 3mph - about 6k steps/hour - for 4 hours? Faster pace is harder but earns you more rest Schedule out the steps a bit - set some targets for different times of day so can make sure you're on pace to hit 100k by 24 hrs. It will totally suck if you get to 70 or 80k and realize you're not quite going to have enough time to finish Probably plan for less rest early in the day, and increasing rest / more frequent rest towards the end. Aim to get to 50k well before the 12 hour mark. Higher chance of slowdowns towards the end Once you get within 10-25k of the end, motivation should get easier because you're basically watching a countdown clock. 40-70k will probably be the hardest stretch because you'll be sore but not yet seeing the light at the end of the tunnel Make sure you're eating throughout the day and drinking lots of water - you're going to burn a huge number of calories and if you aren't eating enough, the back half is going to be awful Recruit some people to join you for different 10k stretches, or plan other things to distract you / entertain you throughout the day Good luck and have fun, I hope you pull it off!

Sep 21

@firstuserhere the way to do this is to just pick a day, wake up bright and early and do nothing, absolutely nothing except for walk for the entire day until you hit 100k steps and then rest the next couple days. You won't regularly be averaging above 20k steps.

Oct 14

I watched through most "100,000 step challenge" videos on YT. Here's my takeaway: - For fit persons (i.e. those who have YT channels devoted to running or weightlifting) this is dooable. Most find it challenging, some find it extremely challenging. About half are not able to complete it in the same calendar day (i.e. they finish past midnight) - For individuals with a "normal" BMI, and no sign of being interested in fitness, this is extremely challenging. Most are not able to complete it, and those that do complete it, do so after midnight (i.e. next calendar day). It's consistetly described as "the hardest thing I have ever done", even by those who have previously run marathons. - I wasn't able to find overweight of unfit people attempting 100,000 steps. I suspect overweight individuals would have little chance of completing this.

Oct 19

I did this in the summer and made a market on it (it’s my most recent question made). Mine was a little more open ended and I just wanted to get as many steps as possible, ended up with a little over 110k. It is possible, I didn’t have any major injuries, and I think you can do it. My advice is: wake up early (like REALLY early, I woke up at 1 am), make sure you have proper fuel (I ate about one clif bar and drank one gatorade per hour for the first 8 or so hours), and get a bunch of steps early so you don’t end up needing to walk a bunch at the end. Also avoid blisters, I don’t actually know how to do this, you can walk through it but it sucks.

Oct 25

For transparency, I’m posting my YES logic because I want this market to correct up a bit before leagues end. Not so I can sell, just so my unrealized profit goes up. My league is unbelievably competitive, and I want to be in Masters more than I want to keep accumulating cheap shares (and I’ve already invested like half my net worth). I think a pretty big thing being overlooked by this market is information from https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/experimental-firstuserheres-guessin?r=anVuZQ The isolation experiment and desert month both suggest to me that FUH is very adventurous and challenges are not new to them. Being able to hold their breath for 2+ minutes also suggests potential endurance that would make this challenge less challenging. FUH is the person with the most information about this market’s potential outcomes and is the only person who controls how it resolves. FUH has open buy orders looking to add to over 350k shares. On a smaller side note, it’s odd to me that people are weighing YouTubers’ experiences with this so heavily. Most of them are going to be dramatic and engineer whatever conclusion is best for engagement, regardless of whether they can physically complete the challenge. I don’t think this market is a sure thing. There are timelines (injury, this whole thing is a way for FUH to lose mana and quit the site, etc) that could prevent even an attempt. But I do think it is -much- more likely to resolve YES than NO, evidenced by my bet being unusually large relative to my typically conservative bankroll management. [link preview]

Oct 27

@firstuserhere enough making the fucking markets. make an attempt at a ton of steps

Nov 3

Why is this market in the "Sex and Love" group?

Nov 6

One huge crux for me on this market: am I correct in understanding the step counter resets at mindnight?

Nov 11

As someone who has been walking on a daily basis for over 30 years, 100k seems to be quite an ambitious goal. More seriously, I’m an avid hiker and climber who has hiked (on trail) >30 miles in a single day. Even on flat pavement, grass, or a treadmill, this is a very difficult target. Especially within the parameters specified in comments. (“Real” / “normal” steps all occurring between 0000-2359 on one day.) This is, by far, the largest bet I’ve ever placed on Manifold.

Nov 15

Getting into good shape, better stamina. Feel much better than just a few weeks ago. Easily able to do 10k in no time and i remember beginning of market my average was way lower. Gonna try a 50k attempt over the weekend, let's see how it goes :)

Nov 18

@firstuserhere how did it go?

Nov 20

@firstuserhere seems likely to be busy during the next few weeks, and he's probably going to have Christmas stuff to do during December so seems likely he won't unless it's a market motivated last minute attempt that goes right.

Nov 27

Folks seem to be having a hard time writing encouraging comments. It'll be hard but you can do it! Don't let the naysayers bring you down!

Nov 28

https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a36751439/walking-100000-steps-fitness-challenge-24-hours-results/ “For the last two years, I have tried to get in at least 15,000 steps in every day. Many days I would be able to beat this mark, getting to the 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 35,000, and even the 40,000 marks.” “By 8:40 a.m. Steven had walked the distance of a full marathon. And he was feeling it. “At this point my body was tired. My feet were swollen, the shins just hurt, my lower back ached, my neck and shoulder there tight, but I wanted to try and get as much done in the cool of the day as I could,” Steven writes.” He did 105k steps in 21 hours, so it’s feasible. I remember having trouble to complete 30k while preparing for a marathon. And then finishing the marathon because commitment and such. So maybe I’m wrong and I will lose my mana. Hope @firstuserhere takes it.

Nov 28

Hasn't passed 30k

Dec 4

@mattyb Honestly this should be much lower, however I am insolvent

Dec 6

I will be using a Garmin forerunner 955 non-solar watch, to measure the steps, most likely.

Here is an auto updating doc with daily steps + a graph of progress.

P.S. Please check the latest version of the doc available at this link, or contact me, before resolving this market (in cases where I'm inactive for 7+ days).

Graph:

The step counter starts and stops at midnight.

Real steps, real walking only

Get Ṁ500 play money

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HedShockpredicts NO

Are we talking normal steps, or are baby steps permitted?

Jaime Santa Cruzpredicts NO

@HedShock 100,000 baby steps are probably more difficult.

firstuserherepredicts YES

@HedShock baby steps where the baby crawls? Might be the only option after a point

Jaime Santa Cruzpredicts NO

@firstuserhere How did the ~50k go?

firstuserherepredicts YES

@JaimeSantaCruz Did not feel as fatigued as I expected the next day or today. But, I was tired enough to feel that the 2nd half of 50k would be a lot tougher mentally.

Jaime Santa Cruzpredicts NO

@firstuserhere Good! not feeling too fatigued is a good sign. On marathons I had a playlist that kept me going, and told myself innumerable lies about how close I was to finishing.

firstuserherepredicts YES

@JaimeSantaCruz For running, I'm always like, "just run till the next bench" and then "just one more" and so on haha

Jaime Santa Cruzpredicts NO

@firstuserhere Way to go. Good luck on the 100k attempt!

firstuserherepredicts YES

@JaimeSantaCruz First up is a proper 50k attempt tomorrow!

cc6predicts NO

Marcus Abramovitchbought Ṁ500 of NO

He failed at 50k and people are buying the market up?

2 traders bought Ṁ11 YES

nikki bought Ṁ15 NO at 50%

JRPpredicts YES

@MarcusAbramovitch "Failed" seems too simplistic as he was not too far off. He came close enough for me to flip-flop again. Were you expecting him to go as far as he could on the 50k attempt? I am guessing but it looks more like, "I about met my attempt goal so I'll stop here and do some reflections..."

Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Doesn't sound like failure to me

Eliza

@chrisjbillington I specifically told him a day or two ago to only do 40k on the trial run.

Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ1 of YES

@Eliza As advice, or is this the bribery we're hearing about :)

Eliza

@chrisjbillington Training advice. I actually want him to complete this. (I own zero shares right now, sold everything on 2 Nov.)

Isaac Kingpredicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch They said they were bribed to stop, that's not a "failure".

🛀predicts NO

@MarcusAbramovitch Not going to 50k was probably something like "to get those 3000 last steps, I'd have to go well out of my way, I'm right near the house" but you could take it as a failure to meet the target which shows a fundamental lack of willpower on the day. Maybe he just got the data he needed, maybe he's not made of the right stuff?

💴💴💴💴💴💴⚖️⚖️⚖️⚖️⚖️⚖️

Chris Billington bought Ṁ300 YES from 48% to 50%

Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ300 of YES

@VAPOR he threw it intentionally, there's no need to rationalise it

🛀predicts NO

@chrisjbillington so you're saying he's gonna throw the fight in the 90K'th round? 💴

Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@VAPOR in all seriousness, maybe.

Can't rule out that these markets are a profit transfer to @Mira

Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

Vergissfunktorpredicts NO

@chrisjbillington did FUH admit to having thrown this intentionally, or is this just a guess?

Chris Billingtonpredicts NO

@Vergissfunktor Yes, he said someone bribed him to delay a few days.

🛀predicts NO

@chrisjbillington it's controversial behaviour, on the one hand it's cheeky chappy banter and roughhousing within the bounds of fair play, on the other hand seriously the word on the street is he's going down in the 90Kth round, we're gonna be filthy f'ing rich

Isaac Kingpredicts NO

Can't rule out that these markets are a profit transfer to @Mira

For anyone who wants to hedge:

🛀 bought Ṁ1 YES at 51%

🛀bought Ṁ1 of YES

@IsaacKing is there nothing sacred in this world