Manifold markets will collapse in 2024 due to massive leveraged bets on failed AI predictions, leading to moderator liquidity support for failed users.
Just as an example. Say Bob and Bill have $2. Bob votes for ai and Bill votes against.
Both sides gain $2 from loans. They reinvest it so both sides wealth doubles again, and they could reinvest that endlessly but well stop there. So now they both have $4 with half loans.
Ai is resolved NO. Now Bill has $6 and Bob has -$2. Any leveraged system of betting has to result in negative values because the wealth was imaginary to begin with.
When Bob sells one of his investments, even if the others are undecided he has to cover his loans, so all this value goes down and it rapidly goes to zero, with Bill ending up with lots of money and nobody to trade with.
Then manifold will adopt communism and redistribute the wealth.
@MarkIngraham technically Bob has $0, but the system is then positive sum because Bill has money nobody can bet against, hence is useless.
@MarkIngraham also, interestingly, both sides end up negative unless they sell incrementally. Even the winner ends up negative if the loser selling destroys the winners wealth before they compensate by selling as well.
Does this resolve yes if manifold fails due to any reason, or only the financial crisis predicted?
@GarrettBaker it can only resolve NO as manifold will not exist
@MarkIngraham manifolds economy can fail with manifold still existing
@GarrettBaker it will be obvious