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Could you give some context for the resolution? Has there been a collapse?

@Amaryllis ^^

@Amaryllis They are banned they aint tellin you nothin

I got a M500 loan clicking the treasure chest today.

This market is fun to link to but OP is a banned troll so I made my own:

Open to suggestions as to what should count. The POTY loan crisis definitely would have in my judgement.

1. (DONE) "Massive leveraged bets on failed AI predictions": /Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year ("Sam Altman + ChatGPT" is an AI prediction. Also all the AI doom markets.)

2. (DONE) Moderator liquidity support for failed users:

@Mira Too soon, it has to happen in 2024 to resolve this market.

(Tweet embed):

Note that @MarkIngraham is banned. Considering this market has a somewhat subjective resolution, it should probably be resolved N/A by a mod

@Tumbles Manifold markets will actually have a financial crisis in 2024 though. The Manifold devs lack the concept of "object permanence" or "seeing the obvious"(issues not directly in their field of vision, but whose existence can be inferred), and tend to "fix" issues by hiding them rather than actually fixing them.

They don't know where all the money is going, are not careful people, and should never run a real money prediction market site even if it were legalized. They do not have the right personality(I have never observed a careless person suddenly becoming extremely careful and paranoid just because they "prioritize it", so ignore them if they tell you it's simply not a priority), so it would have to be a different group of people which means a different site.

@Mira I do consistently find it concerning how big everyone's net worth is compared to their total profit when I look at people's accounts. I confess I'm inclined to believe/agree with you, but I'm having fun, so I'm just going keep up a steady diet of copium for the time being.

@Mira you know whats funny is that I actually emailed them awhile back offering to do exactly this and Id do it for stake only (no cash pay). I have experience with risk management in financial systems. They said they weren't interested.

There are a lot of blatantly obvious problems with the system, many of which are now being realized in mass

@Mira

Just as an example. Say Bob and Bill have $2. Bob votes for ai and Bill votes against.

Both sides gain $2 from loans. They reinvest it so both sides wealth doubles again, and they could reinvest that endlessly but well stop there. So now they both have $4 with half loans.

Ai is resolved NO. Now Bill has $6 and Bob has -$2. Any leveraged system of betting has to result in negative values because the wealth was imaginary to begin with.

When Bob sells one of his investments, even if the others are undecided he has to cover his loans, so all this value goes down and it rapidly goes to zero, with Bill ending up with lots of money and nobody to trade with.

Then manifold will adopt communism and redistribute the wealth.

@MarkIngraham technically Bob has $0, but the system is then positive sum because Bill has money nobody can bet against, hence is useless.

@MarkIngraham also, interestingly, both sides end up negative unless they sell incrementally. Even the winner ends up negative if the loser selling destroys the winners wealth before they compensate by selling as well.

Does this resolve yes if manifold fails due to any reason, or only the financial crisis predicted?

@GarrettBaker it can only resolve NO as manifold will not exist

@MarkIngraham manifolds economy can fail with manifold still existing

@GarrettBaker it will be obvious

@GarrettBaker This guy is the resident metaphorical (possibly literal?) schizophrenic. You probably won’t get a lot of quality conversation out of him.