Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.
Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.
1,000
3.00.
EDIT: misunderstood the comment, disregard
I wanted to gloat a bit, but I don't think it landed well. People are way too salty in this market. @Akzzz123 even deleted his account in shame. So I have removed this comment.
I so badly regret not following the impulse to buy at 6% this morning. Very much deserved and long overdue @firstuserhere
FUH's alt network.
Alts that shared the same device IDs. The pointed arrow in blue represents a referral whereas the straight lines represent that the user has used that device_id (shown as alphanumeric characters that are faintly visible).
More evidence in the comments.
On multiple occasions, mana was transferred to an alt and was used to manipulate the price at which firstuserhere bought shares in the market.
with alt @DRK here - https://manifold.markets/MayMeta/will-firstuserhere-cross-1-million
TheWiggleManRetired, Olivia Saber, Rose J. Nyberg, Jeremiah Alkash, TheWiggleMan, JesusofSuburbia, Gabriel Preye here - https://manifold.markets/journcy/will-this-yudkowsky-tweet-hold-up
Hans Muller here - https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/will-manifold-have-a-day-with-500-o-84ab3c70d955
McGoggles here - https://manifold.markets/AlexMizrahi/will-ai-be-able-to-generate-an-inte
One of FUH's alt https://manifold.markets/TheWiggleManRetired has been banned for the league profit manipulation with PC.
FUH tried to sell @Mira mana that he gained using an infinite mana hack. He lied to Mira that he was coordinating with James to test the exploit.
A lot of this occurred even after part of the shenanigans were exposed. He has not publicly apologised or accepted any of this instead repeatedly misled David and others when he could have easily come clean.
Highly doubt penalizing people who expose fraud while rewarding the fraudsters is in the interest of the community. Hope this can be overturned.
End of thread.
@Akzzz123 hi AK, thanks for posting your thoughts on this in public. I appreciate this kind of investigation into potential exploits of the Manifold economy and laying out the evidence here. (for clarification, AK has shared this with David previously but not me; I'm the one who decided to mod FUH).
I primarily decided to mod FUH in recognition of his contributions to the Manifold community, which I think many users of Manifold recognize. My understanding is he's broken rules around alts before, but a long while ago.
I don't think a spotless record is a hard requirement for being a mod; a pattern of striving to do better and helping Manifold can overcome this. (This is also why I chose to re-mod Isaac) At any point in time, I want our mods to represent a selection of people who best understand the community norms and prosocially contribute towards making the community better; I believe FUH has cleared that bar.
(incidentally, I'd like to make some changes to the mod process next year, including opening up nominations and elections)
@Austin Your argument would make sense had FUH owned up to what he has done. I am fine with people moving on from their checkered past but in this case that hasn't happened. Instead the lying and deception continued even after part of it was exposed and he said on this market that such things are in the past.
Making users who have a pattern of lying and duplicity is antithetical to the concept of trustworthiness.
The "final warning" was given on June 27.
We did our analysis in the first week of September.
@Austin I don't even want to debate this further. Frankly, it is a bit disgusting that such behaviour is not only being excused but rewarded while those who are bringing this to light are being penalized. God help your platform 🙏
@Austin It's your website and you can of course mod whoever you want, but several things you said are false or just very odd.
(for clarification, AK has shared this with David previously but not me; I'm the one who decided to mod FUH).
I'm not sure why you mentioned this, but if I had to guess, it's intended to imply that you were unaware of these accusations when you made your decision. This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. These accusations (and others) have been widely discussed in this very market, and reported to your community manager. What exactly is the point of having a public discussion about whether someone should be a mod, and having a community manager to manage your community, if you're just going to ignore them both and mod people without knowing much about their actual behavior?
I primarily decided to mod FUH in recognition of his contributions to the Manifold community, which I think many users of Manifold recognize. [...] At any point in time, I want our mods to represent a selection of people who [...] prosocially contribute towards making the community better; I believe FUH has cleared that bar.
FUH has created many interesting and engaging markets, that's true. But as far as I know they've done very little that's mod-like or prosocial past market-creation; I almost never see them participate in discussions about site direction, answer new user questions, report issues, etc. If "created interesting markets" is sufficient to be a mod, there are another 10+ people would be equally qualified.
I don't think a spotless record is a hard requirement for being a mod; a pattern of striving to do better and helping Manifold can overcome this. [...] At any point in time, I want our mods to represent a selection of people who best understand the community norms [...]; I believe FUH has cleared that bar.
As AK has pointed out, no such pattern exists for FUH. In fact it's the exact opposite; there have been multiple past indicators of dishonesty, which were never explained or resolved. Various people have been tracking FUH's alt accounts and seen shady behavior that (as far as I know) was never admitted to. The market on a single potential avenue of shadiness is currently at 30%. Just yesterday we got proof that FUH deliberately lied in order to mislead traders in one of his markets. The fact that you believe this behavior is in line with community norms is shocking to me. Of course there are many communities where rampant dishonestly is indeed one of the norms, but I was under the impression that Manifold was trying to be a better place than that.
@Austin Taking my mod status away for hiding spam comments from market makes absolutely no sense based on your explanation of why you moded FUH and Isaac. How much more do I need to contribute to the community to get it back??
@BTE I'm pretty sure you were unmodded because of generally untrustworthy market creator behavior. The hiding thing just reminded people of that.
@Shump Can you show me where that was mentioned? Because it was not discussed with me at all. And I think the hidden comments in retrospect were completely justified and precisely the type of thing a mod should be doing. Constantly posted and misrepresenting “evidence” of a thing that we now know wasn’t actually a thing at all but rather IDF propaganda is market manipulation. I ended up paying Nathan Wei to promise not to comment again for the rest of the year. So please enlighten me to some other examples of me being untrustworthy that you personally or anyone has raised. It’s only fair that I get to defend myself after all. I have created like 2500 questions after all, so I am sure there are some things I did that someone didn’t like. But not enough to lose my mod status. I think my demotion was more due to my general shit talking about the way manifold is run.
@BTE I think the comment would be a little more accurate if you deleted the last 6 words.
@BTE with all due respect, I think your personal political views on the Israel-Palestine conflict has affected your ability here. You think anything by the IDF/Israel is propaganda and thus think anyone who posts something they said are manipulating markets and misrepresenting evidence. This isn't how Manifold works
@MarcusAbramovitch If anything my neutral political perspective on the conflict has enabled me to be more accurate relative to those inclined to believe whatever the IDF says. Below is the chart for the market in question and top row of the profit table to demonstrate what I am talking about. On the left independent thinker, on the right IDF sympathizer. But I don’t even think this was a remotely political question, so maybe you can point me to some concrete examples of what you are talking about?
@MarcusAbramovitch Sure. I will put my Metaculus track record up against your profit all day. I was 27/4184 in 2022 with a Brier Score for 2022/23 of 0.052.
Here are our calibration graphs:
You are a better trader, no question, but I can make a strong case I am the better forecaster.