Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?
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Plus
188
Ṁ590k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO
@Mira haha okay this was epic. Didn't expect this
the manifold anti-addiction challenge, to see what the price of a week off is
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/SQAtW27dFl4)
@firstuserhere nice, bought it in one go
Two days since he made a bet
Update: I am down to my final streak forgiveness point, from the 8 I had earlier this month
Okay y'all let's negotiate: what percent do we have to keep this at so that Isaac promotes but Mira doesn't demote?
@Joshua I don't care about leagues. The #1 prize is only 3000 mana. Anyone who thinks or talks about leagues is misallocating attention and gets no respect from me. Isaac can have the victory if it makes him put more money in again next month. His 100 mana bronze league prize be like: [image]
After doing (during this sam altman - openai saga) some of the worst trading on manifold I've ever done or even seen, i think it'll be good to spend a few days touching grass. [image](dw, i will still create tons of questions xD)
We’re all making kelly bets here right.. right
Isaac vs Mira whale fight... Where have I seen this before?
firstuserhere has to either stay away from a single website for just two days or he loses 400$ worth of real, fake internet points. Logically the choice should be easy, but this market isn't bound by logic anymore.

Refers to the manifold streak. Currerntly, my streak is 265 days + I have 7 streak forgiveness points.

December 4, current streak = 335

Streak forgiveness points =2

Edit: To clarify, breaking the streak means ending the streak.

In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market.

WARNING

Whale fight ongoing

You risk losing all mana. Don't bet unless for fun.

whale GIF

If my streak has been broken and is reset to 0, then I give permission to moderators to resolve this market.

#Manifold
#Crazy streak markets
#Unranked
#New Year's Resolutions 2024
#firstuserhere's personal manifold corner
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I reallllly need to stop betting on FUH's meme markets

predictedNO

oh no foiled by another meme market!

predictedNO

@Tumbles I lost 44k mana myself. Foiled by another fuh meme market

@Tumbles I predicted correctly and still lost money. How does that even work?

@Mira hmmmmmmm

@Tumbles needed to deleverage

predictedNO

now @Jacy can get a good night's sleep! 👏

predictedNO

@shankypanky /market will @Jacy get a good night's sleep?

predictedNO

@firstuserhere 😅

turnabout is fair play - make it and then nudge him regularly to make sure he sleeps well lol

predictedNO

i dunno what happened, i just bet on markets with no research 😆

Ah well. Some good moves, some bad moves. +428 in the end, hope fun was had by all.

bought Ṁ1 YES at 3%
predictedNO

@firstuserhere what is current streak?

predictedYES

@MarcusAbramovitch it's 360

bought Ṁ10 NO at 69%

@firstuserhere edit: it's 361 now

bought Ṁ100 NO at 3%

@firstuserhere how many forgiveness points?

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch it says 1 to me

I think this guarantees a NO resolution

bought Ṁ300 NO from 5% to 4%

@MarcusAbramovitch This is a whale fight, it could always be a triple reverse somehow 😅

@Joshua Oh man, I go to sleep for a single hour, and I missed it!

@MarcusAbramovitch Yes, if FUH is telling the truth about having a streak forgiveness point (I don't know any way I can check this), then a NO resolution is guaranteed based on FUH's trade 44 minutes ago.

In case it comes down to the line, California's time must be used to determine a resolution for this market.

I'm thinking there's more than 5% chance that this is saying that whatever daily streak update happens at the end of dec 31 counts for the purpose of this question?

@Jacy I checked the api. It's true. I don't know why I thought it was 0 earlier. I just saw trades more than 24 hrs apart and didn't bother to check the API, sorry.

predictedNO

@TheBayesian By definition, streaks end at the end of the day, don't they?

predictedNO

@Shump where does it show number of forgiveness points in the API? This is what I've been monitoring.

@Jacy https://manifold.markets/_next/data/J1-8iCm2lC7pdqc3q4zar/firstuserhere.json?username=firstuserhere

bought Ṁ10 NO at 3%

@Shump wow, cool. I should really make a bot to instantaneously trade when things like this happen!

@Shump how do you get that for any user?

@MarcusAbramovitch I found it by using devtools. When you load up someone's profile it calls this endpoint.

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