@Mira has taken very large positions in several of firstuserhere's markets. In three of them, Mira's position is against firstuserhere themselves. All of these are personal markets that firstuserhere has a significant amount of control over, so this seems unwise.
/firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-walk-100000-step
/firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-coauthor-a-neuri
/firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-lose-9-kgs-20-lb
/firstuserhere/will-firstuserhere-break-the-265-da
I also remember a comment Mira made a long time ago where they claimed that firstuserhere was an alt account of theirs, though that may have been intended as a joke. (I can't easily find it again.)
Firstuserhere has indeed been accused of having multiple alts, and who did that accusation come from? Mira!
Looking through Mira's portfolio, they frequently take positions that large, but usually only on non-manipulable markets; firstuserhere's markets seem to be the only personal ones in which Mira has invested >M$20,000, with the exception of Galen's /galen/will-i-submit-my-phd-thesis-for-exa
It seems entirely plausible to me that Mira just trusts firstuserhere to not manipulate those markets, and is betting normally. Indeed, Mira being the one to bring up the evidence for firstuserhere's alts seems like something that they would not have done if they were in cahoots. (But then again, if Mira legitimetly discovered subterfuge from firstuserhere, why trust them to not manipulate their personal markets?)
Basically, there are a lot of odd things that I notice involving those two accounts, and I don't have a good explanation. If they were the same person or otherwise "teaming up", I'd expect to see different behavior, as there would be better ways to turn a profit. But if they were entirely different unrelated people, I would not expect to see these sorts of bets either. I really have no idea what the deal is here.
This market resolves YES if strong evidence emerges that, in a general sense, "I'm onto something". (Note that a more pedestrian agreement between the two, such as to manipulate a whalebait market in a way that's unrelated to anything I said above, does not count.) I would like to be able to bet here despite the subjectivity, so if there's significant disagreement with my proposed resolution, I'll defer to a community vote.
(And to be clear, none of what I'm suggesting (except the alts thing if that happened) is in any way unethical, and this market is not meant to indicate disapproval of them or their actions. I just want to know so that I can appropriately limit my risk, and complain I wasn't included in their evil plan. π)
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I take what I said back. It looks interesting π€
@IsaacKing lol, I've not been in the discord for about 1.5 months? I think. (Other than 1 day a few days ago when I joined to advertise /firstuserhere/openai-devday-predictions )
@firstuserhere Ah, I see. Looks like you left after October 4th, rejoined on November 4th to send a few messages, then left again.
I go where the money is. Most markets don't have that much money in them, so you can't bet large amounts even if you wanted to.
If @IsaacKing puts an order up at 50% that he's going to get a paper in NeurIPS or ICML, I'd probably take that for M100k too. It doesn't matter what the stakes are or how much you want it - you probably won't be able to make publishable research even if you want to. And I believe it's considered academic fraud to bribe your name onto a paper making minimal contributions.
@Mira I wonder if I put up a 10k mana limit order at 10% for buying NO on this market, whether you'd buy YES
@firstuserhere Oh, that's a very good point. The subsidies are still significantly less than the betting amounts, but your policy of generously subsidizing your personal markets leads to increased interest, which increases the effective liquidity by more than the subsidy amount.
Then again, most of Mira's bets are against you, and I'd be pretty nervous doing such a thing myself even at 50%.
@IsaacKing I think Alex's comments here are a good illustration. The base rates are way lower. The market is at more than double the base rates. It's not going to resolve for about a year at least in which time you can recover the amounts invested via loans and if one is going to trade there, it just doesn't make much sense to put mana on YES (unless you're me)