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That was one hell of a dedication lol

Resolves YES

Well, I created 420 markets today related to Football such as premier league markets and Champions league markets. Hopefully other people on the site created 80 other markets to take this above 500. If not, welp, I guess I'll figure something else out.

@firstuserhere What timezone does manifold use? For all European and US timezones the 500 have been reached by now.

@gigab0nus i believe it uses PT. Even if it's already reached, the stats will be published ~12 hrs from now, though you could use API to determine the exact count so far, anytime

@firstuserhere I calculated it using the API. Is there actually an API call that calculates it for you?

@gigab0nus i don't think there's a specific call, I'd just obtain a list of questions posted since midnight PT and check the count

@gigab0nus Manifold stats use pacific standard time, i.e. daily stats currently include markets created in the 24 hour interval from 1am to 1am pacific daylight time.

Dayum @firstuserhere I thought you were going to stop at 180 or however many you made ~10h ago. Impressive.

What's your strategy here @firstuserhere? Creating 100 questions is gonna cost you 5000 Mana, you're not getting that out of this market

@n1psey oh he's gonna make them anyway. welp

@n1psey Yes, because I was going to create these markets anyway, I've been running some previous premier league markets and it's been good. So, Creating them all in the same day to complete this challenge as well was just an added bonus

@firstuserhere Seems tedious to do it all in one go

@n1psey it was all using a script, so all I had to do was

python3 create_markets.py --premier_league

And

python3 create_markets.py --champions_league

@firstuserhere Fair. Seems bad for discoverability though. Maybe I should start writing scripts to recoup my losses

@firstuserhere Do these markets make their cost back though? Seems like they wouldn't

@n1psey 10 traders per market would more or less give me the cost back, and these markets usually attract an average of over 20 traders.

@firstuserhere Interesting. Still not great from an investing standpoint I guess because it takes like a year

@n1psey Perhaps, but at this point in my manifolding, I'm not that concerned with how fast I make the mana back, so I guess it makes more sense for me to do this than for others

@firstuserhere I mean I'd think about it if I had 20000 Mana just lying around lol. But yeah not many people are in that position

btw, does Manifold take applications? Seems really fun to to automate markets like these on their end and would improve useability a lot if they're properly categorized (pick the season, league, and teams each from a dropdown, for example)

@n1psey i have no idea if they do this, but seems useful to have this kind of thing. A creator would be incentivized to create large-scale markets like these better if they were paid for by manifold at least partly + given their own dashboard of sorts where we could filter accordingly like you mentioned

Bought because I love manifold and am bullish on the platform in general.

Sold my position after looking at the numbers. I don't think new users create many markets, so I doubt things going viral will lead to this resolving YES. The existing question count doesn't look like it's going to hit 500.

So it's down to @firstuserhere and other YES voters to coordinate and create lots of interesting questions on the same day without being too spammy and attracting the ire of the manifold mods

Agreed, this is way too bullish at 79%

Huh, people seem really bullish on this happening. My gut feeling is something like 30-50% (without accounting for the market), but the market's at 70%-80% after 20 traders. Anyone want to explain why they believe what they believe?

My feeling is based on 500 being a lot more than the current maximum (369 on Aug. 1st) and the numbers not being that high during August. So while there are a lot more users now, but this isn't being reflected in the number of questions. I sense that this could change - users get more experienced and get market ideas - but 500 still feels like a lot to me.

@Loppukilpailija Maybe it is as simple as me saying that I have plans to make a lot of prediction markets in a single day in the first week of September? Yesterday we almost had 300 markets. The start of the month with new engaged users could easily do most of the heavylifting

@firstuserhere Uhh, how many markets are you gonna create..?

@Loppukilpailija I will be going on a holiday in a few days, so I was thinking of creating the rest of the Premier League markets in one go. I'm proactive enough to promptly resolve them, and creating the whole lot together would require a lot of mana upfront, so...

The entire PL season has 380 matches. 30 have already happened. 350 left. 200 of those will happen in 2024, so 150 left which I was planning to make in a go.

@firstuserhere Uh oh. I'm looking forward to it