Boeing is set to perform their crewed flight test of Starliner on May 7th, 2024. This market will resolve positively if that test is successful, as defined by the following objectives:
The craft leaves no later than 2 weeks after the original planned flight date.
The craft carries 2 or more people on it.
The craft successfully docks with the ISS without any major damage to the craft or ISS.
The craft leaves the ISS less than 2 weeks after it docks with the ISS with the original occupants.
I will make an exception for if there is a medical reason unrelated to the spacecraft that one of the occupants cannot leave the ISS.
Note that the planned docking duration is one week, but could be extended to six months in the case of unforeseen events. A docking duration of more than two weeks would be considered anomalous for any reason, even if the problem is entirely unrelated to the craft.
The craft successfully lands without significant injury to the crew or damage to the spacecraft.
Minor injuries that are commonly associated with space capsule ground landings (like skin injuries) do not count against a positive resolution.
Given that the spacecraft is intended to be reusable, if it becomes clear that the craft cannot reasonably be refurbished after landing, that would count as a negative resolution.
