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@MayMeta Even later tbh, the "before 2026" markets are on 12%. See the collection here:
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
But it looks like this market was reopened! Thanks DAL
Starship has been awarded over $4 billion so far from NASA to be used as the moon lander in Artemis III. Starship is further ahead engineering-wise, and much better-funded, than other US-based lander designs like Blue Origin's National Team lander or the Dynetics lander. https://spacenews.com/nasa-awards-spacex-1-15-billion-contract-for-second-artemis-lander-mission/
Besides the USA, only China is planning crewed moon landings. But they have a tenatively-scheduled date of "before 2030" (it is doubtful that they will achieve this), wheras NASA's equally fictitious target is 2025 (they might actually get there by 2028). https://spacenews.com/china-outlines-pathway-for-lunar-and-deep-space-exploration/
So, it seems like Starship is the only game in town. Starship is currently experiencing some delays relative to expectations, but this is not unusual in the world of aerospace (se above), and doesn't push me much towards thinking that the Starship program will fail entirely and disappear from contention as a moon lander.