Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights?

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resolved Oct 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.

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Resolved YES

Skip to 3:30

https://youtu.be/tjAWYytTKco?si=O_QnjmhwL0QauuGG

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-successfully-catch-a-bo-5ddb59c643b5?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Elon seems confident about catching the starship. alas his track record isn't the best, but it would be epic

@Bayesian Well... he said it's possible if everything goes perfectly. He didn't seem that confident that it will definitely happen on flight 5, just that it's within the realm of possibility. Personally that makes me update to "Yes" on this year, but not that much to Yes on flight 5. (Though, more than the 3% it was at)