Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights?

1kṀ36k

resolved Oct 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ2,641
2		Ṁ1,735
3		Ṁ1,584
4		Ṁ1,462
5		Ṁ924

People are also trading

Will anyone propulsively land an orbital-class rocket booster within a decade of SpaceX?

30% chance

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?

3% chance

By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?

Will SpaceX deploy a functional payload with Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

2% chance

Will SpaceX manage to deliver the Starship on time in 2025 according to its agreement with NASA?

15% chance

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

7% chance

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

10 Comments

94 Holders

362 Trades

Sort by:

Resolved YES

Skip to 3:30

https://youtu.be/tjAWYytTKco?si=O_QnjmhwL0QauuGG

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-successfully-catch-a-bo-5ddb59c643b5?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

Elon seems confident about catching the starship. alas his track record isn't the best, but it would be epic

@Bayesian Well... he said it's possible if everything goes perfectly. He didn't seem that confident that it will definitely happen on flight 5, just that it's within the realm of possibility. Personally that makes me update to "Yes" on this year, but not that much to Yes on flight 5. (Though, more than the 3% it was at)