Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first five Starship flights?
46
14k
2026
38%
chance

A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.

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Elon seems confident about catching the starship. alas his track record isn't the best, but it would be epic

@Bayesian Well... he said it's possible if everything goes perfectly. He didn't seem that confident that it will definitely happen on flight 5, just that it's within the realm of possibility. Personally that makes me update to "Yes" on this year, but not that much to Yes on flight 5. (Though, more than the 3% it was at)

@Mqrius Yeah, it definitely makes me update up as well! agreed on all points

Has there already been 2 flights? Meaning, will they catch a booster during the next 3?

predicts YES
predicts YES

What counts as a flight? I'd suggest every time the launch clamps release after ignition.

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