Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
Jul 7
p = 30%
p = 20%
p = 1%
p = 3%
p = 10%

There are now two Boeing whistleblowers who have died: Joshua Dean and John Barnett. Here's an article on Dean:


(text above copied from @LarsDoucet's market)

When this market has enough traders, I will release a poll for each of the values of p asking "Do you think there's a probability of at least p that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?" with options Yes / No / See answers - or something close to this aiming to capture the same thing. Each option will then resolve according to its poll.

I'm aiming to capture Manifold's current take on Boeing whistleblower deaths without having it tied to media consensus, trial outcomes, etc.

As usual, feel free to ask questions.

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Bump for input on the 20%, 30% and 40% polls ! If you have voted on some of these polls but not others, please consider voting on all three of them. I don't want to influence the votes so I won't say the details but something's weird right now and it would be better if it were corrected by additional input before resolution.

(I'll reveal the "problem" later, probably by making a meme out of it. No worries, it's no big deal - unlike unsafe airplanes and dead whistleblowers - and I suspected it could happen at some point. It just looks a bit stupid, and should get fixed with more input.)

Would anyone like to bet YES on the markets about this? I have put down large NO limit orders:

I would also be willing to take handshake deals on anything longer term if you want to avoid locking up mana.

Note that polls are managed independently. For example if you vote NO on the "60%" poll and don't vote on the "99%" poll, I will not use the fact you voted NO for 60% to artificially count you on a NO on the 99% poll.

@traders all 13 polls are out !


I will resolve options on a rolling basis, resolving those which correspond to a poll where there's enough voters and a clear difference.


Last bump for distribution refinement. Will launch polls in a few days

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