Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?
17
165
1k
May 19
94%
p = 10%
90%
p = 20%
84%
p = 30%
39%
p = 40%
17%
p = 50%
6%
p = 60%
5%
p = 70%
5%
p = 80%
4%
p = 90%
Resolved
YES
p = 1%
Resolved
YES
p = 3%

There are now two Boeing whistleblowers who have died: Joshua Dean and John Barnett. Here's an article on Dean:

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248693512/boeing-whistleblower-josh-dean-dead

(text above copied from @LarsDoucet's market)

When this market has enough traders, I will release a poll for each of the values of p asking "Do you think there's a probability of at least p that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?" with options Yes / No / See answers - or something close to this aiming to capture the same thing. Each option will then resolve according to its poll.

I'm aiming to capture Manifold's current take on Boeing whistleblower deaths without having it tied to media consensus, trial outcomes, etc.

As usual, feel free to ask questions.

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Note that polls are managed independently. For example if you vote NO on the "60%" poll and don't vote on the "99%" poll, I will not use the fact you voted NO for 60% to artificially count you on a NO on the 99% poll.

@traders all 13 polls are out !

https://manifold.markets/Mich?tab=questions

I will resolve options on a rolling basis, resolving those which correspond to a poll where there's enough voters and a clear difference.

reposted

Last bump for distribution refinement. Will launch polls in a few days

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