Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ? | Manifold

Will Manifold think that it's at least p likely that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?

23

1kṀ2549

Jul 7

12%

p = 30%

9%

p = 20%

Resolved

YES

p = 1%

Resolved

YES

p = 3%

Resolved

YES

p = 10%

There are now two Boeing whistleblowers who have died: Joshua Dean and John Barnett. Here's an article on Dean:

https://www.npr.org/2024/05/02/1248693512/boeing-whistleblower-josh-dean-dead

(text above copied from @LarsDoucet's market)

When this market has enough traders, I will release a poll for each of the values of p asking "Do you think there's a probability of at least p that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?" with options Yes / No / See answers - or something close to this aiming to capture the same thing. Each option will then resolve according to its poll.

I'm aiming to capture Manifold's current take on Boeing whistleblower deaths without having it tied to media consensus, trial outcomes, etc.

As usual, feel free to ask questions.

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