Is this about the absolute size of the margin or can it go negative? E.g., if the winner has 1.5 million fewer votes than the loser, does that count as <1M or as between 1M and 2M?

@StevenK It would count as between 1 and 2 mil. Market is solely concerned with the difference between the two top popular vote tallies, independent of who wins the election.

typo, 5000 shouldn't be 5000

@asmith Thanks, fixed.