What will the popular vote margin be in 2024?

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11%

Republican, 2%+

14%

Republican, 0-2%

28%

Democrat, 0-2%

29%

Democrat, 2% - 4%

15%

Democrat, 4% - 6%

3%

Democrat, 6%+

0.2%

Other

Resolves to the amount by which the popular vote winner of the 2024 POTUS election wins by, and the party they are from. Doesn't matter if the popular vote winner wins the Electoral College or not.

"Other" means that an independent or third party candidate wins the popular vote. If the margin is somehow exactly on the boundary of two of these intervals, I'll resolve each to 50%.

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@ShakedKoplewitz The margin is just the percentage of votes that went to the winner, minus the percent that went to the runner-up. So it was 4.5% in 2020. I don't know how 9% would come about from any way of measuring it.

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