Resolves YES if Trump picks white male as his choice for vice president.

"White" means at least 3/4 biological grandparents are of European or Middle Eastern descent. "Male" means they identify as a male (i.e. Caitlyn Jenner wouldn't count).

Resolves NO if Trump picks a non-white or non-male person for VP.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not a presidential nominee or is for some reason unable to pick a nominee (e.g. stroke). Also resolves N/A if Trump changes his official VP pick before I can resolve the market (e.g. death of VP pick).

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Nice

I thought for sure he'd pick a woman to shore up his weaknesses in that demographic.

@xyz should be good to resolve YES

I'll count Rubio as white for the purposes of this question.

what's the inside view for why this should be so much lower than the base rate

How many European grandparents does Rubio have?

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan "An autosomal study from 2014 found the genetic ancestry in Cuba to be 72% European, 20% African and 8% Amerindian."

He's probably whiter than the average Cuban so that'd be over the 75% threshold and he should count as a White Male

10k limit order at 30% on No

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For the record, Irish and Italians aren't white, right?

predicted YES

@AlQuinn They are white according to the question's description.

But Caitlyn Jenner is a man

@PhantomLordMXVI Even if you believe that, it doesn't suit the spirit of the question, which is whether Trump's pick is going to be a standard US politics white male VP pick.