Resolves YES if Trump picks white male as his choice for vice president.

"White" means at least 3/4 biological grandparents are of European or Middle Eastern descent. "Male" means they identify as a male (i.e. Caitlyn Jenner wouldn't count).

Resolves NO if Trump picks a non-white or non-male person for VP.

Resolves N/A if Trump is not a presidential nominee or is for some reason unable to pick a nominee (e.g. stroke). Also resolves N/A if Trump changes his official VP pick before I can resolve the market (e.g. death of VP pick).

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what's the inside view for why this should be so much lower than the base rate

How many European grandparents does Rubio have?

@Khazar_Man_From_Turan "An autosomal study from 2014 found the genetic ancestry in Cuba to be 72% European, 20% African and 8% Amerindian."

He's probably whiter than the average Cuban so that'd be over the 75% threshold and he should count as a White Male

bought Ṁ0 of NO

10k limit order at 30% on No

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Relevant market:

bought Ṁ10 of NO

For the record, Irish and Italians aren't white, right?

predicts YES

@AlQuinn They are white according to the question's description.

But Caitlyn Jenner is a man

bought Ṁ5 of YES

@PhantomLordMXVI Even if you believe that, it doesn't suit the spirit of the question, which is whether Trump's pick is going to be a standard US politics white male VP pick.

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