Will "delve" be said by anyone in a US presidential debate in 2024?
Basic
42
2.8k
Nov 9
25%
chance

Including moderators, only during the actual debate, not the pre- or post- discussions of the debate. Any variant of delve counts: delves, delved, delving, delve.

If there are no Presidential debates in 2024 this will resolve to No.

For reference, "delve" wasn't mentioned during the 2020 debate: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-joe-biden-final-presidential-debate-transcript-2020

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does this include "delving" or only "delves", "delved" and "delve"?

@33cb Any variant of delve counts. So YES to delves, delved, delving and delve.

I've asked AI for estimates conditional on at least one debate occuring

Claude 3 estimates: 20-30%
GPT 3.5: 5-10%
GPT 4: 20-30%
Llama 3: 2%

@nsokolsky I wonder if more powerful LLMs would be significantly more calibrated in predictions. 2% definitely seems low.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ShadowyZephyr they haven't said it during the 2020 debate: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-joe-biden-final-presidential-debate-transcript-2020

I actually think Llama 3 was closest to truth.

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