Will the Democratic candidate win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
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Arbitrage opportunity:

@PlasmaBallin Another arbirage opportunity: Manifold currently says that Trump has a 44% chance of winning the election:

and that conditional on winning, he has a 30% chance of winning the popular vote:

This suggests that he has only about a 13% chance of winning the popular vote overall, assuming that he has basically a 0% chance of winning it if he loses the election (which is an accurate assumption). Of course, it's possible that Trump isn't the nominee, but that's very unlikely (the main Republican primary market on Manifold Politics puts it at 6% currently), so it couldn't change the overall probability of Democrats winning the popular by all that much.

@PlasmaBallin And finally, there's this market, which should technically be slightly lower but in practice is pretty much exactly the same. But it's actually trading slightly higher right now.

More specific version:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

R’s haven’t won this since before most of you were born 📅

sold Ṁ216 of YES

(*post-sep’11 bush re-election barely nudged over, but may still be true 😏)

bought Ṁ13 of NO

@Gigacasting Republicans won the popular vote in 2022 midterms. Very possible they win the popular vote in 2024, especially when the approval of biden is so low among independents

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think this is overpriced based on 2016 - popular vote/electoral college splits are pretty rare (remember that in 2004-2012 democrats had a relative EC advantage), and I think the estimated odds of democrats winning the EC are at 60% or lower.

predicts YES

@ShakedKoplewitz I don’t get it. This question is only about the popular vote. Democrats have been winning the popular vote for a while now, and demographics are shifting in their favor.

predicts NO

@ToddFoster Let's say odds of democrats winning the election are 50% (higher than the market has Biden's odds of winning the election!) Odds of democrats losing the election but winning the PV were only around 10% even in 2016 (a historically skewed year), and would probably not be that high again. Demographic shifts have also cost republicans some of their EC advantage (non swingy states like Florida and New York have become redder lately, while Georgia and Arizona became bluer). So overall this shouldn't be over 60%.

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