On Aug 28, 2023, Protect Kids California announced three ballot initiatives, all regarding issues related to transgender children. I have chosen to ask about the sports-related one because it seems to me the one that would be most likely to pass (sports-related restrictions are more common than the other restrictions in other states).

The initiative will need to gather sufficient signatures before May 9, 2024 in order to appear on the ballot of the Nov 2024 election.

Close date is set to the day after the Nov 2024 election. However, California is slow to count ballots, and a close result may not be clear for some time, in which case the close date will be pushed back. More likely, the market will be resolvable on election night, or perhaps in May if the initiative fails to get enough signatures.

More information can be found here: https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article278607224.html

I may bet in this market because I believe the resolution criteria are unambiguous.