Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?
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3.1k
2030
81%
chance

"Adult" here will mean anyone over 21, not 18, since we already have laws preventing <21-year-olds from doing certain things to their body, like smoking or drinking.

The ban must be for existing types of gender-affirming care, not something new and experimental. (Medical interventions only, not stuff like name changes, dress, or pronoun usage.)

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predicts YES

http://www.wvlegislature.gov/Bill_Text_HTML/2023_SESSIONS/RS/bills/sb252%20intr.pdf

For the purposes of any prohibition, protection or requirement under any and all articles and sections of the Code of West Virginia protecting children from exposure to indecent displays of a sexually explicit nature, such prohibited displays shall include, but not be limited to, any transvestite and/or transgender exposure, performances or display to any minor.

predicts YES

Another Oklahoma bill filed this monthwould prohibit adults up to 25 from receiving gender-affirming care in one of the most extreme and restrictive bans introduced to date.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3810926-transgender-youth-health-care-bans-have-a-new-target-adults/

predicts NO

@Gabrielle Yep, looks like that would definitely resolve this to YES if passed.

predicts YES

Prefiled bill in Oklahoma: https://legiscan.com/OK/bill/HB1011/2023

A. 1. As provided in subsection A of Section 2 of this act, a
physician or other health care professional performing or attempting
to perform gender transition procedures to any individual under
twenty-one (21) years of age shall, upon conviction, be guilty of a
felony punishable by fine not to exceed One Hundred Thousand Dollars
($100,000.00), or by confinement in the custody of the Department of
Corrections for a term not to exceed ten (10) years, or by both such
fine and imprisonment.

@LivInTheLookingGlass That wouldn't cause this to resolve YES, right, since it only affects under-21s?

predicts YES

@a I suppose so. I honestly forgot about that clause (mostly because I disagree with it)

@LivInTheLookingGlass My intention is to investigate whether there will be an attack that can't be defended by "they're too immature to make their own decisions".

Quick clarification on if any of the following count:

  • Hormone therapy as provided to trans adults

  • Hormone therapy as provided to cis adults (testosterone boosting supplements, for example, or menopause care)

  • Sex reassignment surgery for trans people on the binary

  • Sex reassignment surgery for intersex people

  • Sex reassignment surgery that creates non-natural features, such as a phallus preserving vaginoplasty (this is niche, but I don't think it's strictly experimental anymore)

  • Breast implants for people assigned male at birth

  • Androgen blocking medication, such as spironolactone

  • Hysterectomy, either for cis or trans people

  • Things like the anti-cross dressing legislation that used to be actively enforced in the states

  • Antisodomy laws

  • Blocking or revoking changed gender assignments on government documents

@LivInTheLookingGlass As long as those are all things that are currently offered and are safe, they all count except for the last three. I've updated the question to make it clearer I'm only talking about medical interventions.

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