Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic medal (any class) in any women's game category in 2024?
Sep 2

-If the games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen.

-"Any class" of medal means anything bronze, silver, or gold would count.

-The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the medal specifically in the women's division.

-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc, and if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question.

-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.

Feb 21, 1:44pm: We'll ignore coxswains in rowing. Thank you to Will for pointing out the case of Caleb Shepherd, a cismale who won a woman's division medal. He wasn't doing any rowing, just steering and being motivational. That position seems more like a coach. In order to count, an "athlete" must be in a position largely bottlenecked by physical exertion.

Also, we'll ignore medal-stripping. As soon as the medal is awarded at the ceremony, then it counts regardless of whether it is later stripped. Thank you to Moose for pointing this out this scenario, and also for suggesting a simple way to handle it (just make it ceremony-oriented).

The two questions in this series so far: https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Is the only difference between https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an and https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 the medal criteria, or is the lack of "games" in one of the market's titles important?

There seems to be a huge arbitrage opportunity with this wider medal market being at a lower % estimate than the gold medal one if I am not misunderstanding the question.

Only the gold medal one is present in the "sports" tag of manifold market, that may be causing a difference in volume as well.

@xylix You're right, one version is for gold specifically, the other version includes any medal type (silver, gold, bronze) and should trade higher than the only-Gold one.

I see since you posted this, the "sports" tag now shows on both of them. I should probably add a comment to the other to clarify a bit.

bought Ṁ1 of YES
Just buying a nominal amount to leave a comment here: in fact a (cis) male already won a medal in a women's competition at the 2020/2021 Tokyo summer olympics (male coxswain in women's rowing event): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caleb_Shepherd So with this criteria "if an athlete had not transitioned at all they would still count for this question", an equivalent question would have resolved as YES for the 2020 olympics.

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