Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024?
38
335
520
Sep 3
19%
chance

-If the 2024 games are postponed, the market will remain open until the results are seen. -Silver and bronze medals do not count, it must be gold.
-The athlete must have been assigned "male" at birth in order to count, and then gotten the gold medal specifically in the women's division.
-This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc. Even if an athlete had not transitioned at all, they can still count for this question.
-In cases where it's unknown if an athlete was assigned "male" at birth, I will probe over Twitter whoever seems to have insight about that, and assume the athlete was not assigned "male" at birth unless there is strong evidence they were, or personal accounts.

Feb 21, 1:44pm: We'll ignore coxswains in rowing. Thank you to Will for pointing out the case of Caleb Shepherd, a cismale who won a woman's division medal. He wasn't doing any rowing, just steering and being motivational. That position seems more like a coach. In order to count, an "athlete" must be in a position largely bottlenecked by physical exertion. Also, we'll ignore medal-stripping. As soon as the medal is awarded at the ceremony, then it counts regardless of whether it is later stripped. Thank you to Moose for pointing this out this scenario, and also for suggesting a simple way to handle it (just make it ceremony-oriented).

The two questions in this serious so far are:|
https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an-4b728cd098f1 https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an

Mar 16, 1:35pm: Charlie asks how to evaluate given different degrees of being "out". If they allow non-trans men to compete with women, I'll count that (just to keep resolvability high). If a trans-woman athlete wins but we can't tell they were born male, then I won't include them.

Dec 13, 11:38pm: Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in the 2024 games? → Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in 2024?

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This market (just about gold medals) should trade lower than the other version which includes any medal type (gold, silver, bronze).

https://manifold.markets/Jotto999/will-a-trans-female-athlete-win-an

bought Ṁ1 of YES
Currently P(gold medal) is at 11 % and P(any medal) is at 45 %. I assume the most relevant question to these two markets is: Does a biological male actually get to compete in the women's division or not? If they do, their biological advantage might be so large that a gold medal is almost as likely as any medal (meaning if they get a medal, it will probably be gold). If my reasoning is correct, the two probabilities should be closer together. (I don't know around which absolute level, though.)
bought Ṁ100 of NO
It'll be a while before the IOC wants to open that can of worms.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
> This question will ignore whether they had surgery, hormones, etc. Even if an athlete had not transitioned at all, they can still count for this question. Seems impossible to evaluate, then, unless you add some kind of requirement for how "out" they need to be and by what date. (What if they come out after winning the medal?)