Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

Plus

50

Ṁ2607

2031

20%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves YES if an openly trans Republican is elected to a state or federal government position in the 2030 election or earlier. This market resolves NO if that does not happen.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Re-elected counts too, right?

If a current Republican politician comes out as trans, and is re-elected I will count that. Thanks for the clarification!

It took them until 2022 to elect an openly gay non-incumbent Representative (George Santos, of all people...) and if you look at the "state-level offices" section of the Wikipedia page for "notable first LGBT+ politicians in the U.S.," the party affiliation looks kinda like D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R D D D D D D D D R D D D D D D D D D D D. Seems safe to say the base rate is really, really low.

Also, IDK what percentage of trans people are Republican at this point, but given what Republicans have been doing in Florida (and Texas, and Montana, etc. etc.), it's gotta be less than 10%. Maybe less than 5%...

An openly trans Republican has been elected before at the local level!

@Nadja_L So why hasn't this question already resolved to YES?

@LukeHanks Because she was elected at the local level, not the state or federal level!

@Nadja_L Oh! Sorry. I got tripped up on the details. Thanks for explaining.

Related questions

Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?

Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

Related questions

Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?

Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official in the US before 2029?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?

Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules