Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

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2031

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This market resolves YES if an openly trans Republican is elected to a state or federal government position in the 2030 election or earlier. This market resolves NO if that does not happen.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

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Re-elected counts too, right?

If a current Republican politician comes out as trans, and is re-elected I will count that. Thanks for the clarification!

It took them until 2022 to elect an openly gay non-incumbent Representative (George Santos, of all people...) and if you look at the "state-level offices" section of the Wikipedia page for "notable first LGBT+ politicians in the U.S.," the party affiliation looks kinda like D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R D D D D D D D D R D D D D D D D D D D D. Seems safe to say the base rate is really, really low.

Also, IDK what percentage of trans people are Republican at this point, but given what Republicans have been doing in Florida (and Texas, and Montana, etc. etc.), it's gotta be less than 10%. Maybe less than 5%...

An openly trans Republican has been elected before at the local level!

@Nadja_L So why hasn't this question already resolved to YES?

@LukeHanks Because she was elected at the local level, not the state or federal level!

@Nadja_L Oh! Sorry. I got tripped up on the details. Thanks for explaining.

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