By the end of 2028, will more than 50% of US trans youth live in states where best-practice medical care is banned?
Plus
12
Ṁ3482029
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently 28% of transgender youth live in states where best-practice medical care for transgender youth is banned, as reported by LGBT MAP: https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/healthcare_youth_medical_care_bans
If the above source stops reporting data at resolution time, data from Human Rights Campaign (https://www.hrc.org/resources/attacks-on-gender-affirming-care-by-state-map) will be used, or other similarly credible source.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?
Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?
77% chance
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
60% chance
Will Ohio's gender-affirming care ban for minors be in effect by the end of the year?
66% chance
In Texas, will there be a high-profile case of a transgender child being separated from their parents before 2025?
24% chance
Will hormone replacement therapy be generally legal for adults in at least 40 US states as of March 01, 2025?
75% chance
Will SB49 (Restricts gender-affirming care for minors among other things) be in effect in Missouri in 2025?
69% chance
Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?
69% chance
What will be the result of U.S. v. Skrmetti (ban on gender affirming care for trans youth)?
Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?
18% chance