Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?
Sep 2

California Senator Scott Weiner of SF has introduced the bill (https://twitter.com/Scott_Wiener/status/1755650108287578585, https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047).

This bill would regulate AI systems in various ways.

Will it become law by the time the legislative session ends?

This resolves YES if SB 1047 becomes law as a substantively similar bill. I wouldn't count it if it is gutted so much that it now essentially does nothing, but mostly I will let lesser changes stand.

This resolves NO if SB 1047 does not become law by the deadline and the session is over. If the session runs late the deadline will be extended.

Note that this applies only to SB 1047, if another similar bill is introduced and passes that would not count (it seemed too messy to worry about edge cases).

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Anyone got a reason to think the bill will stop at the state assembly or governor's desk?

The bill passed [in the Senate] 32-1 with bipartisan support and now heads to the Assembly, where it must pass by August 31.



ACX article on the bill (mostly covering Zvi’s own article) made the hullabaloo on twitter seem a bit alarmist https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/asteriskzvi-on-californias-ai-bill?r=2jhh1&utm_medium=ios

@ian Funny, ACX and Zvi's articles made me more worried, not less. It's really strange to see Scott write an article about the unexpected negative effects of the CRA and then in literally the next post say "don't worry, this won't happen with the new one because reasons, oh look over there." It's unbelievable the amount of wishful thinking on display.

@ThisProfileDoesntExist Hmm will have to read the CRA article, is that his review of the origin of woke? I suppose my base rate for regulations having net negative impacts is pretty high.

@ian Yeah. The juxtaposition was really startling.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Base rate data from Claude:
> In the 2021-2022 legislative session:

  • 2,776 bills were introduced (including bills that were carried over from the previous session).

  • 1,166 bills were passed by the legislature and sent to the governor.

  • Governor Gavin Newsom signed 997 bills into law and vetoed 169 bills.

anyone wanna summarize the bill in the comments?

@Austin @sylv Asterisk also just worked with Zvi to do a shorter version of his Q&A post https://asteriskmag.com/issues/06/why-is-everyone-suddenly-furious-about-ai-regulation

Good market! I would suggest editing the title to make it clear the bill is about regulating AI.


Very important question, on whether this piece of AI legislation introduced in the CA senate will get enacted - would love to see thoughts and bets by y'all!

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Austin Great market. Wiener is an effective legislator, I wouldn’t count him out.

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