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The State of Forecasting
Nathan Young
Nathan Young
In Jan 2028, will getting opinions from top forecaster be commonplace in non-profit decision making? [Resolves to Poll]
22%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Effective Altruism
10
Ṁ1k
Nathan Young
In Jan 2028, will non-profit decision making commonly use forecasting processes? [Resolves to Poll]
10%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Effective Altruism
6
Ṁ130
Nathan Young
By manifest 2024 there will be a new product vertical for prediction markets/forecasting. [Manifold Poll]
13%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Manifold
#
Manifold Features
#
Manifold Business Future
6
Ṁ130
Nathan Young
Real money political prediction markets will be legal in the US for a month before 2030
51%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
6
Ṁ130
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