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AI Future Prediction Markets
Max Weinzierl
Will a Large Language Model be listed as an author on a peer-reviewed paper by the end of 2025?
48%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
LLMs
#
AI
#
Technical AI Timelines
25
Ṁ450
Max Weinzierl
Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
95%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
Technical AI Timelines
#
Technology
18
Ṁ370
Max Weinzierl
Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?
27%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Space
#
Spacex
#
Technical AI Timelines
17
Ṁ370
Max Weinzierl
Will a new deep learning paradigm replace the transformer by the end of 2024?
18%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
Technology
#
AI
16
Ṁ310
Max Weinzierl
Will artificial intelligence be directly tied to an unemployment rise in the USA by the end of 2025?
24%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
AI Safety
#
Technology
17
Ṁ350
Max Weinzierl
Will Gemini Ultra outperform GPT-4V on visual reasoning by the end of 2024?
65%
chance
Bet Yes
Bet No
#
AI
#
GPT-4 speculation
#
GPT-4
6
Ṁ150
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