We’re talking about Dune: Part Two (2024) and its placement on the IMDB Top 250 leaderboard. It’s currently ranked #16, with a 9.0 rating. Where will it rank at the end of March?

This will Resolve at the end of March 31st, 2024, and all of the true answers will Resolve YES.

Note IMDb defines their 250 as follows:

How do you calculate the rank of movies and TV shows on the Top 250 Movies and Top 250 TV Show lists?

The following formula is used to calculate the Top Rated 250 titles. This formula provides a true 'Bayesian estimate', which takes into account the number of votes each title has received, minimum votes required to be on the list, and the mean vote for all titles:

weighted rating (WR) = (v ÷ (v+m)) × R + (m ÷ (v+m)) × C

Where:

R = average for the movie (mean) = (rating)

v = number of votes for the movie = (votes)

m = minimum votes required to be listed in the Top Rated 250 list (currently 25,000)

C = the mean vote across the whole report

Please be aware the Top 250 Movie list only includes feature films: shorts, TV movies, miniseries and documentaries are not included in the Top 250 Movies Chart. The Top 250 TV Shows Chart includes TV Series, but not TV episodes or Movies.

They also rank by a Weighted Average, defined as:

What does ‘weighted average’ mean?

IMDb publishes weighted vote averages rather than raw data averages. The simplest way to explain it is that although we accept and consider all votes received by users, not all votes have the same impact (or 'weight') on the final rating. 

When unusual voting activity is detected, an different weighting calculation may be applied in order to preserve the reliability of our system. To ensure our rating mechanism remains effective, we don't disclose the exact method used to generate the rating.