What will be the ranking of the top 5 young movie stars in The Big Picture's next “35 Under 35”? (Resolves to %)
46
250
2.1K
May 2
85%
Timothee Chalamet
81%
Margot Robbie
59%
Zendaya
38%
Anya Taylor Joy
26%
Sydney Sweeney
15%
Florence Pugh
13%
Jenna Ortega
8%
Tom Holland
8%
Austin Butler
7%
Saoirse Ronan
5%
Jennifer Lawrence
4%
Paul Mescal

Resolution

  • The #1 ranked movie star resolves to 100%.

  • The #2 ranked movie star resolves to 80%.

  • The #3 ranked movie star resolves to 60%.

  • The #4 ranked movie star resolves to 40%.

  • The #5 ranked movie star resolves to 20%.

  • All other movie stars resolve to 0%.

Context

"The Big Picture" podcast publishes an annual ranking of the young movie stars in Hollywood, titled "35 Under 35". The criteria are obviously subjective, but they define it as roughly:

  • 50% what you've done so far

  • 25% what you’re doing next

  • 25% what you could be

You need to be under the age of 35 to be eligible for the ranking, and this is a movie podcast so the focus is largely on their work within films, not TV.

Here are the top 8 from previous years:

2022

  • 1. Margot Robbie

  • 2. Timothee Chalamet

  • 3. Daniel Kaluuya [now 35]

  • 4. Zendaya

  • 5. Tom Holland

  • 6. Florence Pugh

  • 7. Emma Stone [now 35]

  • 8. Anya Taylor Joy

2021

  • 1. Timothee Chalamet

  • 2. Margot Robbie

  • 3. Daniel Kaluuya [now 35]

  • 4. Tom Holland

  • 5. Anya Taylor Joy

  • 6. Emma Stone [now 35]

  • 7. Florence Pugh

  • 8. Zendaya

2020

  • 1. Emma Stone [now 35]

  • 2. Timothee Chalamet

  • 3. Margot Robbie

  • 4. Daniel Kaluuya [now 35]

  • 5. Florence Pugh

  • 6. Robert Pattinson [now 37]

  • 7. Saoirse Ronan

  • 8. Tom Holland

Details

  • As you can see, it's not an exactly "annual" ranking (there wasn't one posted in 2023, as far as I know).

  • But they have mentioned that the next update is planned for ~April, so this shouldn't take too long.

  • This market resolves based on the next ranking posted within 2024. If none is posted by the end of 2024, it resolves N/A.

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For more "podcast on the Ringer podcast network ranking celebrities based on their current power in Hollywood", check out this related market:

Great market! Any interest in creating the next few years of these markets now? I think the further out they are, the more interesting they might get!

bought Ṁ5 Tom Holland NO

Imagine the rankings go: 1 - Chalamet, 2 - someone not listed in this market, 3 - Robbie. Does Robbie resolve to 80% or 60%?

@PeterF Every actor resolves based on their actual exact rank. So if the #2 actor wasn't listed as an option here, then options would resolve to 100%, 60%, 40%, & 20% (skipping 80%).

Also, note that people can add options if any are missing (although I'll N/A duplicates + anyone who is ineligible). Or to keep it clean, once the rankings are announced if somehow we missed one I could always add them so all the options resolve (but that doesn't impact any betting here).

@Ziddletwix Cool, thanks for the clarification

bought Ṁ10 Zendaya YES

Very cool market!

@Joshua "movies" + "podcasts" + "rankings" -> exact venn diagram intersection of my interests tbh. (appreciate the repost!)

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