Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the New York Times publishes an article that mentions Manifold, otherwise NO.
Fine print:
It must specifically mention Manifold by name in the article text, e.g. a screenshot of Manifold would not count.
It must actually refer to Manifold (this website), e.g. the words "manifold markets" next to each other referring to something else wouldn't count.
Resolution will be based on google search
site:nytimes.com "manifold markets"or if a article meeting the criteria is linked in the comments.Clarification: This means that I will examine links found by a google search like this and links posted in the comments to see whether they meet the criteria.
If manifold changes its name, the question will resolve YES if NYT mentions Manifold by either its old or new name.
Clarification: podcasts, videos, etc are not articles.
If an article links to manifold without actually saying manifold in the text, that does not count.
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๐ Top traders
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Wait, was it the guy interviewing Eliezer on the path Friday night, over towards the area where people wrestled Sunday? Seo Sanghyeon and I may have butted in a bit about LK99 and on whether mm needs something like the SEC or not. I'm so glad this turned out well.
Resolves YES. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html
The NYTimes isnโt really in the business of reporting weeks old news. And now with Israel-Palestine at war there is definitely less room for it. Why is this so high?
@lag No chance that happens if he didnโt do it yesterday. I am shocked he would even write an entire article about a site with only 1000 DAUs. Plus his cohost Casey Newton has spoken disdainfully of prediction markets before, calling them degenerate gamblers.
Even if an NYT reporter is working on the article thereโs a good chance of delay or non-publication
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