jack avatar
Jack
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will NYT publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024?
54%
chance

Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the New York Times publishes an article that mentions Manifold, otherwise NO.

Fine print:

  • It must specifically mention Manifold by name in the article text, e.g. a screenshot of Manifold would not count.

  • It must actually refer to Manifold (this website), e.g. the words "manifold markets" next to each other referring to something else wouldn't count.

  • Resolution will be based on google search site:nytimes.com "manifold markets" or if a article meeting the criteria is linked in the comments.

  • If manifold changes its name, the question will resolve YES if NYT mentions Manifold by either its old or new name.

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CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galebought Ṁ28 of NO

I hope I'm wrong - I'd love to see Manifold mentioned in the NYT.

Most likely reason is for political coverage in showing prediction market likelihoods for 2024 election. But why not cite PredictIt or another source? And it seems much more likely in 2024 vs 2023.

In general, this feels like a case of Manifolders feeling more important and relevant than we currently are.

noumena avatar
Rachel Shubought Ṁ100 of YES

@CarsonGale i think you are likely wrong! manifold is actually not too far from the cultural current, and recognized by enough people who are in the news regularly enough that it could spread to the media before it reaches more grassroots

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galebought Ṁ12 of NO

@noumena well at least I have the insurance contract of - if Manifold does not make the news - making a few hundred Mana in profit :) it's a win win!

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ10 of NO

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ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will NYT publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition