Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
23
แน€2.0k
2028
14%
chance

The New York Times, a popular news organization.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

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I believe this resolves yes!

Kevin Roose, while on the NYT Podcast (CtrlF "What market should we create"), showed he already had an account and then made this market!

predicts NO

@RobertCousineau Sorry Robert - yes it does have to be the official organization. Apologies if you lost mana on my lack of clarity in the description!