Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?
15
85
αΉ335αΉ310
Sep 2
54%
chance
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1M
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Mentioning assassination markets does not need to involve the word "assassination", as long as there's a clear reference to the moral hazard and potential controversy.
To count, the article must be substantially about Manifold Markets as a place for prediction markets. As in other contexts, I'll use "33% of the length is actually about Manifold" as a rough threshold, but I reserve the right to adjust if I decide that rule is inappropriate on a case-by-case basis.
I'll not be betting in this market, of course.
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