Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?
26
1kṀ1840
2031
47%
chance

Positive (YES): Hype piece, predicted something way ahead, charity donations, etc.

Negative (NO): Person bet up market before making an illegal/immoral action, gambling, etc.

Mainstream news: TV only (podcasts do not count) - CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC, ABC, MSNBC

First mention: from this day forward

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What about neutral — "Prediction site Manifold Markets says that the odds of [event] happening are %x"?

Would someone offhandedly mentioning Manifold in an interview count?

Why TV? Nobody watches linear TV, mostly.

predictedYES

@ClubmasterTransparent Looking for a major news story, not an advertorial in the NYT. That way we'll know it's serious.

Missed that this is only TV news. I was counting on the NYT article...

Does ESPN or similar count as mainstream?

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