Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive? | Manifold

Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?

27

Ṁ1kṀ2k

2031

52%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Positive (YES): Hype piece, predicted something way ahead, charity donations, etc.

Negative (NO): Person bet up market before making an illegal/immoral action, gambling, etc.

Mainstream news: TV only (podcasts do not count) - CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC, ABC, MSNBC

First mention: from this day forward

Update 2026-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A mention citing Manifold's odds or data (e.g., "Prediction site Manifold Markets says that the odds of [event] happening are %x") will resolve as YES (Positive), as it provides credibility to the site.

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What about neutral — "Prediction site Manifold Markets says that the odds of [event] happening are %x"?

@Predictor I have the same question

@Qoiuoiuoiu I would not call that neutral. In fact, it would be very positive as it is providing credibility to the site and valuing it is a valid source of information.

Would someone offhandedly mentioning Manifold in an interview count?

Why TV? Nobody watches linear TV, mostly.

predictedYES

@ClubmasterTransparent Looking for a major news story, not an advertorial in the NYT. That way we'll know it's serious.

Missed that this is only TV news. I was counting on the NYT article...

Does ESPN or similar count as mainstream?

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Related questions

If Manifold gets negative news coverage, will a large number of new users join?

Will Manifold be mentioned in a mainstream Hollywood movie before 2030?

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Will the first BBC article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will the first Reuters article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Will the first CNN article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

When would we have the first Manifold question to be featured in an r/all post?

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