🏅 Top traders

The article: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html

Why did this resolve early?

@JackIngram there was an article from nyt about manifest

@lag right, of course

I wonder if a war in the Middle East might push back an article about forecasting.

@FrederickNorris there prob would be no reason to because the tech reporters wouldn't start working on the war

@lag Apparently, many of the traders here have never been hyped up by a reporter trying to get you to cooperate, and then the story never materialized. And I'm talking small papers, forget about the NYT. But hey, that's why there are markets.

While it's certainly possible to have "inside information", as anyone involved with publishing (print or TV) knows, there is no certainty on what will appear.

This is insider-info market creating, this is

@chrisjbillington "Will there be an article published in the New York Times, page 3, right column with an ad for Tide Pods distributed for publication at 9:15 AM October 9?"

Average Manifolder: "The base rates on such a thing is so low given the conjunction fallacy, that I feel comfortable betting this down to 0.01%"

@chrisjbillington Read the Manifold team’s meeting notes

“Expect NYtimes article to come out this weekend/monday”

@oh But don't tell anyone! About information in our public meeting notes! 🤐🤐🤐

@chrisjbillington Before the notes said this, they said something else, right, @SG? 💀

@Mira
> creator bets their life savings
> due to a daylight savings software bug, article is actually published at 8:15am

@Mira Darn, was just about to bet this up!