Must be in an article, not a podcast, not a transcript of a podcast, the word "Manifold" must appear in the main text of the article (i.e. not in a tooltip or the url of a link that has different text, not as a footnote), and must be referring to Manifold the prediction market website, as we know it, not some other use of the word.
Relevant timezone for "Before Oct 10th" is Pacific time.
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@FrederickNorris there prob would be no reason to because the tech reporters wouldn't start working on the war
@lag Apparently, many of the traders here have never been hyped up by a reporter trying to get you to cooperate, and then the story never materialized. And I'm talking small papers, forget about the NYT. But hey, that's why there are markets.
@chrisjbillington "Will there be an article published in the New York Times, page 3, right column with an ad for Tide Pods distributed for publication at 9:15 AM October 9?"
Average Manifolder: "The base rates on such a thing is so low given the conjunction fallacy, that I feel comfortable betting this down to 0.01%"
@chrisjbillington Before the notes said this, they said something else, right, @SG? 💀
@Mira
> creator bets their life savings
> due to a daylight savings software bug, article is actually published at 8:15am