Will Manifold be mentioned in the New York Times before Oct 10th?
resolved Oct 8

Must be in an article, not a podcast, not a transcript of a podcast, the word "Manifold" must appear in the main text of the article (i.e. not in a tooltip or the url of a link that has different text, not as a footnote), and must be referring to Manifold the prediction market website, as we know it, not some other use of the word.

Relevant timezone for "Before Oct 10th" is Pacific time.

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predicted NO

Why did this resolve early?

predicted NO

@JackIngram there was an article from nyt about manifest

predicted NO

@lag right, of course

I wonder if a war in the Middle East might push back an article about forecasting.

predicted NO

@FrederickNorris there prob would be no reason to because the tech reporters wouldn't start working on the war

predicted NO

@lag Apparently, many of the traders here have never been hyped up by a reporter trying to get you to cooperate, and then the story never materialized. And I'm talking small papers, forget about the NYT. But hey, that's why there are markets.

While it's certainly possible to have "inside information", as anyone involved with publishing (print or TV) knows, there is no certainty on what will appear.

This is insider-info market creating, this is

@chrisjbillington "Will there be an article published in the New York Times, page 3, right column with an ad for Tide Pods distributed for publication at 9:15 AM October 9?"

Average Manifolder: "The base rates on such a thing is so low given the conjunction fallacy, that I feel comfortable betting this down to 0.01%"

@chrisjbillington Read the Manifold team’s meeting notes

predicted YES

“Expect NYtimes article to come out this weekend/monday”

@oh But don't tell anyone! About information in our public meeting notes! 🤐🤐🤐

@chrisjbillington Before the notes said this, they said something else, right, @SG? 💀

> creator bets their life savings
> due to a daylight savings software bug, article is actually published at 8:15am

Mira 🍎boughtṀ100YES

@Mira Darn, was just about to bet this up!