Will Manifold be mentioned in the New York Times before Oct 10th?

Basic

Ṁ106k

resolved Oct 8

Resolved

YES

ALL

Must be in an article, not a podcast, not a transcript of a podcast, the word "Manifold" must appear in the main text of the article (i.e. not in a tooltip or the url of a link that has different text, not as a footnote), and must be referring to Manifold the prediction market website, as we know it, not some other use of the word.

Relevant timezone for "Before Oct 10th" is Pacific time.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,534
2		Ṁ458
3		Ṁ90
4		Ṁ83
5		Ṁ68

17 Comments

72 Holders

220 Trades

Sort by:

predicted YES

The article: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html

predicted NO

Why did this resolve early?

predicted NO

@JackIngram there was an article from nyt about manifest

predicted NO

@lag right, of course

I wonder if a war in the Middle East might push back an article about forecasting.

predicted NO

@FrederickNorris there prob would be no reason to because the tech reporters wouldn't start working on the war

predicted NO

@lag Apparently, many of the traders here have never been hyped up by a reporter trying to get you to cooperate, and then the story never materialized. And I'm talking small papers, forget about the NYT. But hey, that's why there are markets.

While it's certainly possible to have "inside information", as anyone involved with publishing (print or TV) knows, there is no certainty on what will appear.

This is insider-info market creating, this is

@chrisjbillington "Will there be an article published in the New York Times, page 3, right column with an ad for Tide Pods distributed for publication at 9:15 AM October 9?"

Average Manifolder: "The base rates on such a thing is so low given the conjunction fallacy, that I feel comfortable betting this down to 0.01%"