I wouldn't be this cavalier with real money, but the idea someone "from" the NYT says "hey, I'm doing this story" is a reliable way to know it will be in print, I don't know what to tell you.

@FrederickNorris I don't know the details, but betters here aren't stupid, it sounds like there has been a lot more communication than that.

@chrisjbillington At some point, I'd take this kind of odds that almost any human interest story will be nixed. It's not like I'm some kind of expert in the newspaper business, I'll admit.

@Joshua 👀

@chrisjbillington There are probably 2-3 people in the world from whom "inside information" on what will actually get printed in the NYT can originate. Bet accordingly.

My dad heard from some guys at work (he has a NYT job) that most likely publication date is October 9th.

@Joshua Do you realize how much Mana that information is worth????

@Joshua oh no actually my grandpa owns the nyt and saw your dad eavesdropping and so put on a little act for him. Didn't you notice those "guys" were being played by Tom cruise and Brad Pitt?

I mean just because a reporter shows up to Manifest doesn't mean the finished article gets greenlit for publication. And if it's a deep dive investigation, rather than a quick news beat or fluff piece, that could take awhile

Related

Curious if this was priced in already

Thanks for reading, I’ve kept it fairly short as we are expecting pieces from Scott Alexander and NYT which will cover other areas. We also plan to publish more thoughtful “reflections as an organiser” and “how to organise your own Manifest-like event” pieces down the line. We will definitely be farming content from all the talks and may have some response pieces to some of what was discussed!

Source: https://news.manifold.markets/p/wrapping-up-manifest-2023

Is the uncertainty from NYT being slow to publish? Or manifold somehow not being mentioned / or David Chee being mistaken?

I guess not.

@Sailfish Lol, I thought it was widely understood that there was going to be an article soon, thought the pricing here was entirely about the timing.

@chrisjbillington yeah 10 days seems pretty quick for what would have to be a feature piece, right?

@ErickBall Just figuring out the whales vs minnows market will take longer than that

I made this market because I saw @SG trading on increased Manifold engagement in October. It takes a minimum of 14 days for new accounts to count as engaged users, so I may have an off-by-one error in my arithmetic but that implies any influx of new users would have to be before about mid-month.

A quicker uptick in engagement among existing users is also a possibility if an article is published later in Oct, as is @SG not thinking too hard about the lag on the engagement numbers before betting (no offence).

(Or obviously, that the bets are unrelated or are a gamble with no insider info)

smol YES limit up at 10% if anybody wants more NO

would manifest in the title instead of manifold be okay

@lag the title is not part of the resolution criteria, Manifold must be mentioned in the main text (and not only Manifest).

👍

@lag Highly doubt manifest would be mentioned without manifold

@cc6 doesn't seem so unlikely to me, maybe make a market on it