Will China declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan in August?
11
5
100
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Background:

Biden administration officials are concerned that China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan ahead of a possible visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as an effort to upend the trip, potentially raising tensions even further in the region

from https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html

Resolves YES China has declared a no-fly zone over Taiwan during August, as reported by reliable media outlets.

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predicted NO
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-visit/index.html > US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan as part of her tour of Asia, according to a senior Taiwanese government official and a US official, despite warnings from Biden administration officials, who are worried about China’s response to such a high-profile visit. > “We would like to tell the US once again that China is standing by, and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never sit idly by. China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters, when asked about the fallout from Pelosi leading a congressional delegation to Taipei.
predicted NO
@Duncan I see you have a group https://manifold.markets/group/taiwan that I want to add my questions to, but it's closed, can you add them?
@jack I hadn't realized that groups were closed by default. All my groups are open now.
Once again, one more reason why #hashtags were better than groups....
predicted NO
@Duncan I think they changed it to open by default at some point, so that helps at least