When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1.1kṀ11k

2028

January 12, 2027

ALL

Before 2026-10-01

79%

Before 2027-01-01

81%

Before 2027-04-01

86%

Before 2027-07-01

91%

Before 2027-10-01

96%

Before 2028-01-01

Resolves YES for all time ranges before which there is a flight in which Starship and its booster both successfully land.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
- Primary source: The result will resolve based on a consensus of news media reports.
- Secondary source: If there is no news media consensus, the resolution will follow SpaceX's statement.
- Fallback: In the absence of a clear statement from SpaceX, the resolution will be based on a personal assessment: whether both the booster and Starship appear to have landed and remain undamaged.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Landing Site Clarification:
- Planets/Moons: A landing on a planet or moon is counted as successful.
- Space Stations: Landings on space stations do not count.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.

Market context

SpaceX

Space

Rockets

Commercial spaceflight

Space exploration

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@Gabrielle
Before 2026-07-01 can resolve thanks

No chance of launch in March 2026 let alone of getting licence to land/catch starship - Musk has said 2 more perfect ocean touchdowns needed before attempting that.

@Gabrielle July 2025, Oct 2025 (and realistically 1 Jan 2026) can resolve please.

How do I know if it was a successful landing?

@Eliza If there is a consensus of news media, resolves according to that. If there’s no news media consensus, it resolves according to SpaceX. If SpaceX is unclear or does not state either way, it resolves based on my personal assessment, which will roughly be “Does the booster and Starship both look like they landed and were undamaged”.