When will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
5
26
350
2035
37%
2026 or earlier
50%
2027 or earlier
66%
2028 or earlier
85%
2029 or earlier
83%
2032 or earlier
87%
2035 or earlier

Resolves YES once an individual Starship second stage launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed

Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it

The launches themselves don't need to be successful

Starship does not need to be its exact name but it must be the second stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship

I've tried to make this market resilient to any changes SpaceX could make in how Starship is supposed to launch and land - but I won't participate in this market just in case it is ambiguous

UTC is used for dates

Please ask if you want anything clarified

Related markets:

/Nat/when-will-a-starship-booster-first

/Nat/when-will-starship-first-relaunch-i

/Nat/when-will-a-starship-booster-first-1311e8827875

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