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When will Starship land on a launch pad?
5
แน€300แน€512
2029
June 21, 2027
11%
2026 Q2
25%
2026 Q3
19%
2026 Q4
7%
2027 Q1
5%
2027 Q2
3%
2027 Q3
3%
2027 Q4
2%
2028 Q1
2%
2028 Q2
2%
2028 Q3
19%
2028 Q4/Later/Never

Starship = the second stage, having launched on top of Super Heavy

Land = a successful landing. After it comes to rest vertically Starship should neither move, explode nor be engulfed in flames* for a period of 60 mins (if SpaceX deliberately moves the spacecraft in this hour that will obviate the no-moving requirement)

*if this is the point of contention I will make a good faith attempt to determine whether at any point in visible footage more than 25% of Starship is occluded by flames. I think this is enough to exclude minor fires.

"a" launch pad. If Starship lands on a pad at the same launch centre as the one it took off from, this would count. If it lands in a different location, this would not count

If it really matters it the moment of liftoff, local time, will be used to determine when a successful resolution took place.

  • Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tower catch counts as a valid landing method for this market.

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