Will Uzbekistan approve the proposed constitutional amendments in the referendum of April 30, 2023?
11
85
230
resolved May 5
Resolved
YES

The nation of Uzbekistan, in Central Asia, will hold a referendum on various proposed constitutional amendments. The referendum is scheduled for April 30, 2023. This document (in Uzbek) contains the current text of the amendments.

Some background: According to this press release from March 15, the proposed amendments include "greater protection of human rights", "fair and open democratic values", "a continuous education system", "the development of a favourable investment and business climate", and "protecting the environment". However, The Economist and Eurasianet, among others, point out that the amendments would also allow Uzbekistan's current president, who has already been in power in 2016, to stay in power until 2042. (Under current rules, he'd have to step down in 2026.) Also, the people of Karakalpakstan (an autonomous region of Uzbekistan) protested in July 2022 as a leaked first draft (in Uzbek) had a provision that would strip Karakalpakstan of its autonomy. (That provision was removed.)

Furthermore, Uzbekistan had two previous constitutional referendums. The 1995 referendum extended the previous president's term by five more years. The 2002 referendum extended that president's term by five more years, in addition to creating a bicameral parliament. Both referendums passed by 90%+, but had very little turnout.

Resolution criteria: I will use the mainstream media to resolve this question.


(Description slightly edited for clarity.)

UPDATE: The votes are in, but the results aren't out. Based on The Guardian's reported deadline, I've extended this market to Wednesday, May 10. Until the results are out, keep predicting and stay tuned! (I also removed the clauses about the referendum being cancelled or rescheduled, since they're now moot.)

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ22
2Ṁ11
3Ṁ9
4Ṁ6
5Ṁ5
Sort by:
predicted YES
predicted YES

Voting has closed today! The election results haven't been announced yet, however (the deadline is "in the next 10 days"). Thus, I'm extending this market to Wednesday, May 10 just in case anyone else wants to bet. Turnout is at least 73%, so I think the referendum will probably be conclusive.

(Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/30/polls-close-uzbekistan-referendum-shavkat-mirziyoyev)

sold Ṁ0 of NO

I just support more of these types of markets, so I'm giving the unique trader bonus.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

I'm betting YES, mostly based on precedent, but also because it seems that many of the proposed reforms (e.g. human rights, environmentalism, etc.) seem that they could be genuinely beneficial for the world, if they aren't all made up.

More related questions