Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024?
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Dec 31
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bought Ṁ100 of NO

I think the most Ukrainian would answer:

better give us more guns, so we can finish this before regular election day according to schedule.

Why do you guys think it's so likely? I asked my Ukrainian friend and he said it would be "Illegal unless martial law ends".

@BenjaminIkuta Interestingly, it is considered very unlikely that the elections will take place as scheduled... Seems like either people expect something to change dramatically in the second half of 2024, or there's a lot of room for arbitrage :)

bought Ṁ2 of YES

@BenjaminIkuta Hm, I googled and your friend seems to be right. I was operating under the assumption that the default case is for election to happen normally.

@42irrationalist Lmao, did my comment really just tank this market? Smh my head, prediction markets BTFO'd.