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I created a market for parliamentary elections:
https://manifold.markets/JanCzechowski/will-ukraine-hold-a-parliamentary-e?r=SmFuQ3plY2hvd3NraQ

Will Ukraine hold a parliamentary election in 2024?

50% chance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/if-ukraine-does-not-end-martial-law?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

If Ukraine does not end martial law, will it hold a presidential election in 2024?

50% chance.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/if-ukraine-ends-martial-law-will-it?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

If Ukraine ends martial law, will it hold a presidential election in 2024?

66% chance.

I think the most Ukrainian would answer:

better give us more guns, so we can finish this before regular election day according to schedule.

Why do you guys think it's so likely? I asked my Ukrainian friend and he said it would be "Illegal unless martial law ends".

@BenjaminIkuta Interestingly, it is considered very unlikely that the elections will take place as scheduled... Seems like either people expect something to change dramatically in the second half of 2024, or there's a lot of room for arbitrage :)

@BenjaminIkuta Hm, I googled and your friend seems to be right. I was operating under the assumption that the default case is for election to happen normally.

@42irrationalist Lmao, did my comment really just tank this market? Smh my head, prediction markets BTFO'd.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ukraine-hold-a-presidential-el

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ukraine-hold-a-presidential-el-96bf6a37de49

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ukraine-hold-a-presidential-el-0de2cf17915d