What deck will win Pro Tour Thunder Junction?
resolved Apr 29
Dimir Midrange
Esper Midrange
Boros Convoke
Temur Lands
Mono-Red Aggro
Bant Poison
Four-Color Legends
UW Control

Pro Tour Thunder Junction will take place April 26-28 in Seattle. The formats are OTJ Draft and Standard. This market resolves to the Standard deck registered by the winning player.

The options listed here are all the decks with a >5% metagame share according to https://www.mtggoldfish.com/metagame/standard#paper. I will probably add more options after deck lists are published and I will definitely make sure that each top 8 deck is listed before the final day of play. If you want to bet on a deck that's not listed, let me know!

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Game 1 of the finals goes to 5c Burn! I'm going to bed right now, will resolve this market tomorrow evening EU time. Enjoy watching the rest of the finals @Weezing @NotoriousLimit @Ajelenbogen

@MartyDettmann Wow American privilege strikes again

Added UW Control as an option. There's one copy of the deck in the top 8, played by Yuta Takahashi.

Note that this means that 'Other' is effectively eliminated. I suppose I could have not added UW and had Other stand in for it, but oh well.

I went through all the decks and can confirm that there's no Bant Toxic in there.

Also, there's one copy each of 'Sultai Legends' and 'Five-Color Analyst'. I would count those as Four-Color Legends and Temur Lands, respectively. The Sultai Legends deck is somewhat different, replacing Inti with Reality Chip as its main card draw engine, so I could be swayed to count it separately. The Five-Color Analyst deck is just regular Temur Lands splashing two copies of Atraxa.

The decks classified as 'Domain Ramp' and the one deck labeled 'Domain Control' both fall under the option 'Domain'. Had I named it 'Domain Ramp' I would still likely count the Domain Control deck in there.

The UW control decks will continue to fall under the umbrella of 'Other' unless one of them makes top 8, in which case I will add it as an option then. If you want to bet on UW control now, please message me and I'll add it (same goes for other archetypes not listed).

Deck lists are now public. https://magic.gg/news/pro-tour-thunder-junction-standard-decklists

I believe there were no Bant Toxic decks in the tournament. Presuming that is correct can that option resolve no?

@Ajelenbogen Can confirm that Bant Toxic can resolve No, see my comment. I don't know how to do that/don't think I can do that, though. Best I could do would be to buy a bunch of 'No' shares there so you could sell your 'No' at more profit. I don't have tons of mana lying around so that's not a perfect solution for you or for me.

I'll buy 400 No on it if you want to sell your shares, otherwise you'll have to wait for full market resolution.

@MartyDettmann no problem I can wait. I just know things can get weird when a market option is 100% known to be resolving a particular way.

Deck lists are not yet public, but Frank Karsten's metagame breakdown has been published:

I've added Four-Color Legends as an option, as it has an 8.2% share of the tournament metagame and I trust the archetype assignment and delineation is good enough in this case (not always the case with deck archetypes reported by WotC).

I'm reluctant to add more archetypes before getting to see the lists to check if they are what they are labeled as. Also none make up more than 5% of the field.