Bill Maher claims to be certain that the answer is yes, that election deniers are being elected in the midterms now, in 2022, that will enable a coup by Trump on inauguration day 2025.

See https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1446700866778456066 plus more recent interviews where he makes clear that he's fully serious.

PS: For reference, we're going to say that January 6th, 2021 would've half-counted as a coup attempt, meaning that if something like that happened again, this market would resolve to PROB at 50%. Other than that, I plan to use the related markets below to help adjudicate this in case of ambiguity.

And since that may be a judgment call, I've sold my shares so I won't have a conflict of interest.

Related markets:

• https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade

• https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i