I was browsing Twitter the other day and stumbled across a tweet by @beshearstan1 posting this 2024 US election prediction with the caption "this WILL happen":
But will this actually happen? Will Biden beat Trump again in 2024 with the same states as he won back in 2020 along with scoring a victory in North Carolina? Additionally, will the Democrats win the House of Representatives? If ALL of these criteria are met, market will resolve as YES.
If:
Biden is not the Democratic presidential nominee; OR
Trump is not the Republican presidential nominee; OR
Biden does not win the election with the exact same states he won in 2020; OR
Biden does not win North Carolina; OR
Biden flips any additional state; OR
The Democrats do not win the House,
market will resolve as NO. The results of the 2024 Presidential election must match exactly with what the tweet predicts, minus the criteria of the Senate, for the market to resolve as YES.
This market is part of my Battleground States group, a series of markets relating to key competitive swing states in the 2024 US Presidential Election. These markets allow users to bet on a state-by-state basis how they foresee the results of election day (November 5th, 2024) playing out. Be sure to check out the entire category to see which races are up for grabs!
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@dittopoop If we pretend that these aren't correlated and are accurate, it looks like a ~2.5% chance here
edit: forgot one of the criteria, there's an implied 11% chance that another state/district flips blue, so ~2.2%
PS. Anyone else wish that linking to other markets hid the graph by default? They look nice but take up way too much vertical space
