Will Donald Trump be the 2024 nominee (now that he's been arrested in 2023)?
177
892
2K
Jul 18
97%
chance

This market's condition has been met, and it will resolve based on whether Trump is nominated for President by the GOP.

Original criteria:

Will Donald Trump Sr. be nominated for President in the 2024 election by the US Republican Party if he is arrested (using the legal definition of that term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs) in 2023 (going by the time zone in which the event occurs)?

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bought Ṁ400 of NO

feds hit Don with the rico in Georgia

This market has received a lot more attention lately, so I wonder whether I should point out to new bettors that Trump was arrested several months ago - this market should be the same as "Will Trump win the nomination?"

predicts YES

@NcyRocks Maybe update the title?

predicts YES

@MartinRandall This is a good idea, but add something like "{Condition Met]" instead of dropping the condition entirely, so people know what to make of the the historical prices

predicts YES

Nah don't update the title. Change the description maybe, but dont change the title. Keeping the title, will remind me why I originally bet in the market. Updating the description to say that condition. Sure.

predicts YES

@higherLEVELING @MichaelWheatley I think the historical record can be preserved in the description and the title should be aimed at new bettors, but I accept it's a matter of taste.

@MartinRandall Not sure what the best approach is in this situation. I think I've struck an okay middle ground, keeping the original condition but de-emphasising it.

Looks like people are still betting it down. I did wonder if priming them with negative evidence would do that.

This market’s condition has been met, and so it will resolve based on whether Trump is nominated.

Interestingly, it seems to have gone up since Trump’s arrest, to about where the ‘not arrested’ market was.